Strait of Hormuz: a fifth of world oil suspended from negotiations after new American strikes

An energy bottleneck at the center of discussions

The war in the Middle East has severely disrupted the world economy, largely due to the virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic passage normally concentrates around a fifth of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas consumed in the world, making it one of the nerve centers of global energy supply.

Its reopening is among the priority subjects of the talks between Washington and Tehran. The issue goes beyond just the bilateral framework: any slowdown in traffic in the area has mechanical repercussions on the prices of crude oil and LNG, and therefore on the supply costs of importing economies, including France and the euro zone.

The oil shock linked to the conflict is already weighing on European activity, as shown by the latest S&P Global PMI index devoted to the French private sector. This morning, the barrel of Brent fell below 100 dollars yesterday, but the situation remains very tense.

American strikes, Iranian verbal response: a fragile balance

The United States carried out new strikes on Iranian territory during the night from Monday to Tuesday, a first in several weeks. According to Centcom, the operation targeted missile launch sites and Iranian boats which were attempting to lay mines. The American army claims to act with restraint during the ceasefire and presents the action as limited to the neutralization of operational threats.

Tehran has not officially confirmed the strikes. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reacted on state television by insisting on the loss of influence of the United States in the Gulf, a message intended to show that Iran does not consider itself weakened.

The ceasefire concluded on April 8 opened a phase of blockages, threats then resumption of dialogue. The last few days had suggested possible progress, with Donald Trump speaking of an imminent compromise. The intensification announced by Israel in Lebanon, then the American strikes, dampened expectations of de-escalation.

Diplomatic channels are not cut

After the announcement of the strikes, global markets adopted a more cautious posture. European stock markets opened without a clear direction, while oil prices briefly started to rise again.

However, diplomatic channels remain active. Senior Iranian officials, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, visited Doha on Monday. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said conclusions had been reached on many of the issues, without mentioning an imminent agreement. On the American side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio specified that the discussions still focused on the formulation of the initial text and that they would take a few days, while leaving open the possibility of failure.

Donald Trump also linked the negotiations to an extension of the Abraham Accords, estimating in a message published Monday on social networks that several Muslim-majority countries should at least sign them simultaneously. Beijing, for its part, asked the parties concerned to respect their commitments and continue discussions, in a call for stability. These multiple negotiating lines will determine in the short term the trajectory of crude and LNG prices, and more broadly global economic conditions.