Believe it or not? Wall Street was betting at the opening on Tuesday on a peace agreement in the Middle East, unlike the European stock markets, which were much more measured.
After a few minutes of trading, the Nasdaq of technology stocks (+1.08%) shared the optimism around tech with the two other Wall Street indices (Dow Jones +0.28% and S&P 500 +0.73%).
In Europe, the mood was mixed. After the previous day’s gains, Paris (-0.68%) and Frankfurt (-0.59%) fell back shortly before 2:00 p.m. GMT. Milan floated around its equilibrium point (-0.02%).
London posted a slight increase (+0.61%) despite the fall of British Petroleum (-4.64%) caused by market news.
The British hydrocarbons giant BP announced on Monday that it was separating with immediate effect from its president Albert Manifold, due to “serious concerns” linked to its governance and its “conduct”, a new drama at the head of a group that has been in turmoil in recent years. recent years.
In Europe, “investor enthusiasm has partially faded”, comments Kathleen Brooks, director of research at XTB.
The United States struck Iranian territory overnight from Monday to Tuesday, for the first time in several weeks, dealing a blow to apparent progress in negotiations to end the war in the Middle East.
Iran has not yet officially confirmed the information. In a written statement broadcast on state television, the supreme guide preferred to emphasize the supposed loss of influence of Washington, which according to him is moving away “every day further from its former status” in the Gulf.
“Markets are digesting the mixed messages coming from the White House about the war in Iran. Over the weekend, hopes were high that a deal between the United States and Iran could be reached in the short term. This led to a 6% drop in the price of oil on Monday, as well as a broad rally on stocks and bonds”, summarizes Kathleen Brooks.
– Brent oil is on the rise again –
The price of Brent, the world benchmark for crude, remained just below $100 per barrel shortly before 2:00 p.m. GMT (99.44, +3.43%).
For Daniela Hathorn, analyst at Capital.com, the markets are in an “uncomfortable” position: they “no longer anticipate an imminent escalation towards a total regional war, but they do not count on a quick and clear resolution either.”
“Oil rebounded after the sharp drop caused on Monday by hopes of a peace agreement, investors reintegrating part of the geopolitical premium into prices,” explains Daniela Hathorn.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key issue in the conflict: normally, a fifth of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas consumed in the world passes through this strategic passage.
“Even if discussions continue, maritime flows remain constrained and any new threat weighing on oil tanker traffic will quickly have repercussions on the energy markets,” recalls the Capital.com analyst.
– Sovereign borrowing rates rise –
“The rise in oil prices is fueling inflation expectations around the world, putting upward pressure on global yields,” notes Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote.
The rate on the 10-year German bond (Bund), considered the strongest in the euro zone, rose to 2.98% around 2:00 p.m. GMT, compared to 2.94% at the close on Monday.
The yield on the ten-year French bond stood at 3.59% compared to nearly 3.56% Monday evening.
Global sovereign borrowing rates have been particularly volatile in recent days, and “we expect to see periods of decline in yields as geopolitical risks subside,” says Kathleen Brooks.
“However, the underlying trend remains that the current war represents significant budgetary and inflationary risks, which should persist in the weeks to come,” she recalls.
For the equity markets, the rise in borrowing costs remains a major point of attention “because the tightening of financial conditions is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to ignore,” notes Ms. Ozkardeskaya.
“Higher global yields increase the cost of capital, put valuations under pressure and threaten to slow both consumer spending and business investment,” she explains.
In this context, the dollar fell against the euro (-0.17%) to one dollar for 1.1624 euros.
Euronext CAC40
