According to the latest federal data from the Russian Finance Ministry, analyzed by economist Janis Kluge, Moscow spent 28.5 billion rubles (340 million euros) on recruitment bonuses in the first quarter of the year.. Each bonus being around 400,000 rubles (4,800 euros), this corresponds to around 71,200 new recruits over the first three months of the year.
This is the lowest figure in three years.
- This drop in recruitment coincides with an increase in losses on the front in Ukraine.
- With around 30,000 losses estimated per month (15,000 killed and 15,000 severely wounded), the Russian army has probably lost more men than it has recruited since the start of the year.
- According to the latest regional data, the ratio between recruitment and losses returned to balance in the second quarter, with around 30,000 new contracts signed on average over the April-May period.
Russian regions have found it increasingly difficult in recent months to achieve their recruitment targets, set by the Kremlin. This is particularly the case in Moscow, where fewer than 25,000 people signed a contract with the army last year – or 25% less than in 2024. Since the start of the year, at least 35 regions have increased their recruitment bonuses: up to +550 % in the Maris Republic (from 400,000 to 2.1 million rubles, or 25,000 euros).
This trend is partly attributable to the stagnation of the conflict.
- Some Russians were able to join the army in 2024-2025 in order to benefit from the high bonus amounts while hoping that the war would end.
- Tactical victories, such as Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Kursk Oblast in 2025, may have had a positive impact on the number of candidates presenting themselves at recruitment offices..
- Trump’s re-election in November 2024 also caused a considerable increase in recruitment, which reached its highest level in December: more than 50,000, three times more than in January.
But signs indicating that a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine is imminent have become increasingly rare, which has the effect of dissuading or, at least, not encouraging potential volunteers to join the army. According to Ukrainian analyst Dmitry Snegirev, on the front, the average lifespan of a Russian infantry soldier is about a week..
