War in the Middle East: six months or more? How long will the demining of the Strait of Hormuz take?

According to information revealed on Wednesday by the Washington Post, the Pentagon estimated during a classified presentation to the U.S. Congress that mine clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz could extend over a period of up to six months. Such a duration would pose a lasting threat to global energy markets, especially oil and gas prices, given the strategic role of this maritime passage through which more than 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas transit.

The American newspaper, citing three anonymous officials, reported that U.S. lawmakers were informed that Iran may have planted at least twenty mines in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. Some of these mines were deployed using GPS technology to make their detection more difficult, while others were “deployed by Iranian forces using small boats.”

Fact Check: The Pentagon denied the information about a six-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz, calling it false and dishonest journalism.

Context: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for maritime energy transport, and tensions in the region can have global implications.

The issue of mining in the strait, which normally handles a fifth of the world’s hydrocarbon transport, lacks reliable information. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the ideological army of Iran, warned in mid-April of a “dangerous area” of 1,400 km2 where mines could be located.

Last week, Donald Trump claimed that Tehran, “with the help of the United States, has removed, or is in the process of removing, all sea mines.” However, this information has not been confirmed by the Islamic Republic.

Fact Check: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have significant implications for global energy supplies and prices.

Context: The strait is a crucial passage for oil tankers moving between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

Even in the event of an official reopening of the strait by Tehran and Washington, ship operators are still cautious and need detailed information on safe routes to navigate, as they fear potential mines. Several “non-belligerent” countries have shown readiness to participate in a “neutral mission” to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

The valuable strait is now at the center of the conflict that began on February 28 with Israeli-American strikes on Iran, before the Washington-Tehran ceasefire took effect on April 8. According to Tehran, ships must obtain permission to enter or leave the Gulf via Hormuz, while the United States has blocked access to Iranian ports since April 13. A senior Iranian parliament official stated that Tehran had received its first revenues from passage fees established in the strategic strait.

Context: The geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have escalated in recent months, impacting international maritime trade and energy security.

Fact Check: The closure or disruption of traffic through the strait has the potential to impact global oil and gas markets.