In the context of the conflict in Ukraine and the sharp tensions with Donald Trump over the war in Iran, “security and military cooperation issues will be central” during discussions in Gdansk, outlined Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “We have very close views on how to build Europe’s strength and the sovereignty of Poland, France, and Europe,” he added on the eve of the visit to his hometown.
A strategic focus on deterrence
At the heart of the exchanges is the “advanced nuclear deterrence” proposed on March 2 by Emmanuel Macron to eight European countries, with Germany and Poland at the forefront, including possible joint exercises and the stationing of French aircraft equipped with bombs at its allies’ bases. The French president, accompanied by four ministers, is expected in the morning in Gdansk, a symbol of Europe’s upheavals in the 20th century, about 150 kilometers from Kaliningrad, Russia’s outpost in the European Union.
The two leaders will discuss Poland’s possible “conventional participation” in French deterrence, even though France will remain sovereign in the use of force, clarified the Élysée. Polish forces could contribute to “early warning, air defense, or deep strikes” in the event of a nuclear conflict. The Élysée also promises to sign a partnership on a “military communication satellite project” with French, Polish, and European operators.
The stakes of the defense industry
Another major topic concerns the “European preference” in defense equipment acquisition, a key point for Emmanuel Macron. Poland has massively invested in the modernization of its armed forces in recent years. By 2026, its military spending is expected to exceed 4.8% of GDP, making its budget one of the highest in NATO. However, the country has placed “massive orders for American F35s, Apache attack helicopters, Patriot missiles, and Abrams tanks,” notes a European diplomat.
Furthermore, nationalist president Karol Nawrocki opposes Poland’s participation in the EU’s Safe program, citing a threat to the country’s independence. While Poland has returned to pro-European plans with Donald Tusk, it remains attached to its relationship with the United States. “Washington’s strategy has certainly changed towards Europeans,” admits Donald Tusk, but Polish-American and Euro-American relations remain “very important.”
