He was convinced that the war would be over in no time. But his certainties wavered in the face of Iran’s extreme resistance, determined not to let the United States set the tone. Behind his usual bravado on social media, Donald Trump is unsure, alternating between belligerent and conciliatory postures, facing the risk of failure for the first time.
During his presidential campaign, the American leader swore he could end foreign wars; solve, thanks to the country’s military power, a problem that had resisted seven of his predecessors. Today, it’s not adding up: the ceasefire remains precarious, an essential trade route has been paralyzed for several weeks, and the top dogs of the Iranian regime have been replaced by new radical leaders – all factors that could prolong a conflict he claimed he could conclude in six weeks, a deadline already passed.
A lack of planning
“We are witnessing [military operations] that do not result in victory, and this is directly the president’s responsibility and the way he exercises his duties – lack of attention to detail and lack of planning,” criticized Kori Schake, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute and former member of George W. Bush’s National Security Council, to the Wall Street Journal.
Illustrating this was the spectacular ultimatum issued by the White House tenant the Tuesday after Easter when he claimed that if Iran did not reach an agreement within 12 hours, an entire civilization would disappear. In a lengthy investigation, the American newspaper revealed that this message was completely improvised and had not been discussed prior with the president’s national security team. As a result, in the United States and around the world, many were seized with fear and confusion about Donald Trump’s intentions. Behind the scenes, his top advisors saw this initiative as a way to provoke negotiations in a war the president desperately wanted to end – a futile and even counterproductive attempt, according to several experts.
Erratic management
Moreover, shortly before this announcement, Donald Trump seemed erratic, discussing, alongside the management of the conflict in the Middle East, the midterm elections with his team or participating in discussions on cryptocurrencies, according to collaborators. His hesitations were also evident at the moment of deciding whether or not to send American soldiers to take control of Kharg, the starting point for 90% of Iranian oil exports. Although he was assured the mission would succeed and that seizing the territory would give the United States access to the strait, the president feared unacceptable American losses. “They would be easy targets,” he reportedly stated.
Despite these precautions and buoyed by his “victory” in Venezuela and the execution of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Donald Trump did not measure the impact of such a conflict on his image – and that of his party. Frustrated by poor polls and lack of external praise, the president thought that a victory against Iran would allow him to reshape the world order. “If we do things right, we save the world,” he reportedly told close associates, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Security concerns
Today, faced with uncertainty, security concerns at the White House have intensified. In recent weeks, a noticeable reinforcement of security measures has been observed. In the president’s luxury property, Mar-a-Lago, in Florida, guests noticed on a clear April night that all umbrellas were open on the terrace, supposedly to hinder drone visibility. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also reportedly recounted observing a suspicious drone near his home in a military complex, fears that prompted security teams to use “unusual” equipment and weapons, never before seen by some officials.
Despite this tense atmosphere, Donald Trump indicated to his advisors that he wished to address other subjects and divert media attention. At a meeting at the Kennedy Center in March, he discussed with some guests the ballroom project he supervises at the White House, showing plans and presenting himself as the mastermind of this project. He also remains very involved in fundraising for the midterm elections: shortly after the start of the conflict in late February, he was already participating in a fundraising event at Mar-a-Lago, refusing to cancel it despite the circumstances.
