The marché sheep world is going through a period of transition marked by dynamic commercial et sanitary which directly influence prices. In Franceproduction has fallen by 16% over the last three years, due in particular to the fever catarrhale ovine (FCO) and the pyamide of the âges. Early 2026 announces a certain stability for the marché French which however remains relative. Between décapitalisation of the herds, aléas climatic et sanitary but also a context geopolitics tensethe marché sheep is more unpredictable than ever.
During l’AG of Copagno, Boris Duflot of l’IDEL returned in detail to how the orientations and décisions commercial of the main pays producers can have an impact on the course French.Â
In Europe, Spain supplants Ireland
THE échanges intra-européens play a key role in the marché sheep French.Â
The Union Europeanwhich imports 28% of its consumption of meat ovinedepends strongly on the Kingdom–Uni and the New Zealandwhich together represent nearly 94% of its supplies exteriors.
 Or, les choix commercial death payslike the free trade agreements signés par Australia and the Kingdom–Uni or between l’UE et Australiacan upset the balance of marché.
Spaina major player in marché Europeanembodies the ongoing challenges and adaptations. First exporter d’ovins living in Europe with 1.5 million têtes exportés annually, the pays was able to pivot towards new destinations to maintain its flows. After having favored the Libya, Spain a réorienté ses exports towards the Moroccothen towards Algeria (more than 600,000 sheep), demonstrating an ability to adapt to changes géopolitiques et economical. However, this résilience commercial masks a more worrying reality.
The sécheresse persistentparticularly in the centre of payscaused a décapitalisation massive herdsthe réducing production nationale. To honor their agreements, they were forced to buy lambs the end, à la France notably. HAS”Â
L’imprévisibilité climatic therefore reshuffled the cards within l’Europe. The emergence of carnation in Greece does the same to this day, due to the ban on the release of ovins grecs.Â
In Irelanda country also competing for its productivitéit is another challenge which undermines its position as leader. There filter ovine must face increased internal competition with the filter milky bovine which captures a growing share of resources in land and in main–of work. These combined pressures weaken its position as supplier key for l’Europe.
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China and Oceania: key players in price volatility
At the level worldonce is not customary, the continent Asian gives the A.Â
The Chinebecome a importer major, influence strongly flux global. Ses purchases massive of meat ovineparticularly fromAustralia and of New Zealand, have long supported prices by reducing the concurrence on the marché European ; both pays océaniens having seen their volumes of exports sucked in by the géant chinois.Â
However, since 2022, the request of the Empire of Milieu weakens due to crises economical internal and a strategy self-sufficiency eating.Â
This drop of the purchases Chinese libère des volumes on the marché internationalwhich can weigh on prices, particularly in Europe»Âunderlines Boris Duflot.Â
Moreover, Australiawhose production is closely linked to conditions climaticconnaît des cycles of sécheresse.Â
On observe des slaughters massive of animals during these périodes before a recapitalization. Naturally, the exports are impactés » précise l’économiste. According to the projections for the next preciouslythe consumption of meats should know a growth variable depending on filièresoscillate between 10% and 15%
Sheep meat is positioned favorably with a increase expected of 15 % from here 2036confirming his attractivité in the long term.
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