The International Monetary Fund warns, Thursday, May 14, 2026, that an “unfavorable scenario” is looming for the world economy due to the continuation of the war in the Middle East.
Decline in growth, rising inflation, blockage of energy flows… As the conflict triggered on February 28 by the United States and Israel against Iran enters its fourth month of war, the IMF is sounding the alarm, as relayed by BFM Business this Thursday, May 12.
Temporary concerns
If the projections published last April estimated the global growth rate for 2026 at 3.1%, the world organization already predicted a risk of economic deterioration towards a more “unfavorable” scenario in the event of a continuation of the war. On Thursday, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack acknowledged that “we are heading towards the unfavorable scenario.”
Nevertheless, the representative estimated that “inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored and financial conditions remain accommodative.” Especially since the global economic forecasts will be updated by the IMF in July 2026, specifies Le Parisien.
Among economic players, the time has come for observation. If individuals and businesses change their habits with regard to future inflation (decrease in consumption, increase in prices, reduction of inventories, etc.), central banks could then modify their key rates, mechanically reducing local and global economic activity.
publié le 15 mai à 07h45, Mina Peltier, 6Médias
