Global shock: Iran tightens grip on Hormuz, Qatar sees impact nearing

The Qatar warns that the global economy is headed towards a deeper shock in the coming months, as the impasse around the Strait of Hormuz worsens, and the energy crisis the world has been facing so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

Speaking this week in Washington at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund, Qatari Finance Minister Ali ben Ahmed Al Kuwari indicated that the full impact of the conflict could be felt in the coming months if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

“The shock in all its magnitude is yet to come,” he declared, warning that the crisis could escalate from rising prices to actual energy and essential raw material shortages.

These statements come as tensions around Hormuz escalate, with maritime flows remaining disrupted despite sporadic cease-fire signals and conflicting claims about whether the route is fully reopened.

Al Kuwari explained that the world will soon face an “energy availability problem,” where countries able to pay more will struggle to secure their supplies.

Approximately one third of the world’s fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz, posing a risk of disrupted planting campaigns and a broader food crisis.

Qatar, representing about 30% of the global helium supply, also warned of shortages potentially affecting the health and semiconductor sectors.

“If the situation continues, you will see a considerable economic impact,” the minister said, pointing out the knock-on effects on supply chains and key sectors.

Hormuz sees over a fifth of global energy supplies passing through it, with traffic disrupted since the conflict began, attacks on navigation, and competing military measures fueling uncertainty about passage security.

International institutions warn that prolonged disruption could push the global economy into recession, exacerbating inflation and tightening financial conditions.

In Qatar, the impact is already visible on strategic energy facilities. The Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas plant, one of the world’s largest, was severely damaged during the conflict, taking about 17% of the country’s export capacities offline and further straining global gas supplies.

Repairs could take up to five years, underscoring the long-term consequences. Qatar being one of the largest global LNG exporters, prolonged halts will continue to ripple through international markets.

Despite the severe global warning, Al Kuwari struck a reassuring tone regarding Qatar’s internal outlook, assuring that the country has sufficient financial flexibility to absorb the immediate impact, with a governmental “shock fund” able to support the economy for several months, alongside significant sovereign reserves.

Authorities are also preparing targeted support for sectors like aviation, tourism, and manufacturing, affected by disruptions.

“The shock in all its magnitude is yet to come,” Al Kuwari reminded. “It is not far away.”

For Qatar, the message is clear: the worst is yet to come.

Without a return to stability in Hormuz, the shock is expected to worsen in the coming months.