The Russian army has been engaged in its spring offensive in Ukraine for nearly a month now. However, over the past two weeks, since the beginning of April, Moscow has not conducted any major offensive operations on the front line. Instead, they have regrouped their forces and made adjustments to their campaign plans.
This decrease in intensity is reflected in the numbers provided by the Ukrainian military. The daily number of Russian assaults, averaged over a 30-day period, has decreased from 200 in November to 156 as of April 15. This marks the lowest level recorded in a year.
These figures do not mean that the fighting has stopped on the front line. Recently, Moscow intensified its offensive efforts in the Kostiantynivka sector in the Donetsk oblast. However, it appears that the Russian command is struggling to reorganize its forces due to significant material and human losses suffered during the winter.
The availability of human resources is particularly concerning for Moscow. Regional budget data from Russia indicates a nearly 20% decrease in recruitment pace from the first quarter of 2025 to 2026, dropping from an average of 1,100 new recruits per day to 900 this year.
The dwindling number of available personnel could potentially impact the military objectives set by the Russian government in the coming months. Ukrainian military sources report that the Kremlin aims to capture the city of Kostiantynivka by April 25 and the entire Donetsk region by the end of the year – goals that currently seem unrealistic.
As a result of recent offensive failures, Russian command may be reducing the number of operational sectors to focus on a smaller set of objectives. The Russian entanglement in the Kostiantynivka and Droujkivka sectors has significantly lowered the likelihood of a breakthrough towards the Ukrainian fortress belt in Donetsk. This situation arises from a mismatch between Kremlin objectives and Russian military capabilities, as well as effective counter-attack strategies by the Ukrainian army.
Ukrainian assaults towards Oleksandrivka and Houliaipole in the Zaporijia oblast have forced the Russian command to allocate resources that could have been used for the offensive efforts targeting the Donetsk fortresses. The Ukrainian attacks have also necessitated tapping into reserves.
