Critical minerals: why the United States is turning to South Africa.

In the global race for critical minerals, the United States is seeking allies to challenge China’s dominance in certain supply chains. Despite diplomatic tensions with Pretoria, South Africa has the resources to play this role.

In South Africa, exploratory discussions have reportedly begun with Washington regarding potential agreements on natural resources. While the information reported by the Financial Times has not been officially confirmed by either party, the benefits such a partnership could bring to the United States in terms of access to critical minerals like rare earths or copper are apparent.

According to the FT, the two countries recently held a meeting in Johannesburg bringing together officials and executives from the mining and banking sectors to identify projects that could benefit from American cooperation in mining, energy, and logistics. The forum is led by the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and includes the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which is increasingly active in certain African critical minerals projects, particularly in the DRC and Rwanda.

A challenging profile of resources not to be ignored

The commercial rapprochement between Pretoria and Washington contrasts with several months of diplomatic turbulence since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025. Recent events include the exclusion of South Africa from the upcoming G20 summit in the United States.

In its efforts to diversify its critical mineral supply, the American government can hardly ignore the rainbow nation. South Africa possesses one of the most diversified mineral endowments in the world, including resources that are increasingly coveted for strategic reasons, including energy transition.

The country holds approximately 83% of the world’s platinum group metals (PGMs) reserves, which power technologies for energy transition, such as hydrogen fuel cells. Between 2020 and 2023, South Africa supplied 45% of American platinum imports and 32% of palladium, according to the USGS.

South Africa also has copper development projects, like the Prieska project led by Orion Minerals on a deposit capable of delivering 22,000 tons of copper per year. However, it is in rare earths where American interest in South Africa could be most successful. With 71% of American imports of rare earth components and metals coming from China between 2021 and 2024, the export controls strengthened by Beijing since April 2025 on elements like dysprosium and terbium have increased the urgency to diversify the sourcing.

Three South African projects are poised to contribute to this goal. Phalaborwa, operated by Rainbow Rare Earths with the support of Techmet, a fund backed by the DFC, can deliver 1,850 tons of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) annually. The Zandkopsdrift project, led by Frontier, aims for an annual production of 4,000 tons of these magnetic rare earths, while the Steenkampskraal project is set to supply a monazite concentrate, a ore rich in rare earths.

What Pretoria stands to gain

For South Africa, American interest comes at a time when the mining sector struggles to attract investors for exploration. In recent years, expenditures in this segment have represented less than 1% of the global budget, compared to over 5% two decades ago. In response, Pretoria adopted a national critical minerals strategy in May 2025, presented by Minister Gwede Mantashe, aimed at encouraging investments in exploration, local processing, and international partnerships.

During his visit to the White House last year, President Cyril Ramaphosa indicated that his country is open to increased cooperation on critical minerals with the United States. While waiting for more concrete commitments from Washington, Pretoria formalized a first agreement with the European Union last year. On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Johannesburg, which was ignored by the Trump administration, the two parties agreed to jointly develop exploration, extraction, and refining projects for these resources.