Can we talk about the historic visit of the American president?
A visit to China would inherently be very important. But this is indeed a historic trip, as it comes at a time when America has never been more isolated on the international stage, while China has never embodied such a pillar of stability.
For the first time in centuries, a Western world leader is going to another leader in a position of weakness. This is a major geopolitical upheaval, a moment that confirms the shift from one world to another. This is the first visit by an American president to meet what could be the new “emperor of the world,” Xi Jinping.
Is this isolation and American decline mainly due to the actions of the Trump administration, or is it foreseeable given the increasingly important role that China plays in the world?
When Donald Trump returned to power for his second term, he surrounded himself with ideologues who aim to dismantle the international system established since 1945. They have succeeded in isolating the United States like never before: by cutting off aid to Africa, thus leaving room for China and Russia; by threatening to forcibly annex an NATO member, which is a historic first and a blow to Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance; and by pushing Europeans to turn to other partners.
This is both a diplomatic and ideological isolation. The goal of this administration is to return to a system of bilateral relations, where multilateral organizations are marginalized and alliances become purely circumstantial. By destabilizing the old order, the United States has allowed China to emerge as the new force of stability.
The decline of the United States on the international stage was certainly foreseeable, but Donald Trump has considerably accelerated the process.
Seventeen American business leaders are part of the trip. Trump also leaves for business purposes.
A large part of this visit is indeed dedicated to economic issues. The Trump administration hopes to obtain tangible benefits, conclude agreements with China, stabilize the competition between Washington and Beijing, find mechanisms of reciprocity, and work towards the best for the American economy.
Trump is not going there aggressively. On the contrary, he will adopt a conciliatory, almost supplicating posture. The current relationship is unbalanced in favor of China. From an economic point of view, it is now the United States that needs China more than the other way around.
How do Americans perceive this trip?
The domestic situation is so difficult that this state visit appears, to the American public opinion, as just another trip.
However, observers are closely following this visit. Some are concerned about the concessions that Donald Trump could make to Beijing, for example regarding Taiwan.
What are America’s red lines on the Taiwan issue?
If Taiwan is attacked, Washington will not intervene militarily. Let’s see things as they are: the United States did not directly intervene in Ukraine, they did not send soldiers to the ground in Iran, and there is no indication that they would be willing to risk American lives for Taiwan.
Washington would eventually point out that Taiwan is not recognized as an independent state by the UN or the European Union. In international law, Beijing considers this issue as an internal matter.
Chinese intervention in Taiwan will happen one day; the only unknown is the timing. The United States will protest, but will eventually adapt to the reality on the ground.
For Trump, is this also about saving face before the November midterms?
If Donald Trump returns from China with numerous economic agreements and manages to highlight a peaceful relationship with Beijing, it could improve a currently very degraded image.
The November elections will not be won thanks to this single visit. What could truly change the political dynamic would be a honorable solution to the Iranian conflict and progress on other international issues, particularly Cuba. But looking at the polls today, the real question is whether the Republicans will suffer a debacle in Congress, or just a limited defeat.
