The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, in the wake of the escalation between Iran, the United States and Israel, is causing an unprecedented shock to global energy supplies. According to Wael Sawan, boss of Shell, more than 10% of global oil production and nearly 20% of liquefied natural gas are currently out of production.
One hundred days after the start of the disruptions, the effects are being felt hard, particularly in Asia. Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand have introduced rationing measures, while India is also experiencing strong tensions. Other economies, like Pakistan and the Philippines, have reduced their working weeks to cope with the energy crisis.
Read also: Strait of Hormuz: the countries most vulnerable to the oil shock
A return to normal still far away
Tehran is accused of having orchestrated the near paralysis of this strategic passage, usually used by nearly 20 million barrels per day. Despite hopes of de-escalation, recent strikes and reprisals between the powers involved complicate any rapid exit from the crisis, despite the optimistic declarations of Donald Trump.
Even in the event of calm, market rebalancing could take more than a year. At the same time, certain infrastructures were damaged, notably in Ras Laffan, in Qatar, the main world hub for gas liquefaction. Work is underway, but full return to service is not expected for several months.
