The Labor government has committed to increasing its military spending to 2.5% of GDP in 2027 (compared to 2.4% in 2025), then to 3% after 2029, and 3.5% in 2035. Despite this ambition, the United Kingdom will have to “make important choices” on its priorities, due to years of lack of investment and industrial delays.
The surprise resignations this Thursday, June 11, of the British Minister of Defense and his Secretary of State, who deplored the lack of resources provided for the armed forces, highlighted the difficulty of the United Kingdom in adapting its military capabilities to new threats. Since then, Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday evening appointed Dan Jarvis, a former soldier, to take the reins of Defense.
But these departures highlight a deep budgetary disagreement on the defense investment plan, initially expected for the fall of 2025, but not yet published. Keir Starmer nevertheless promised it before the NATO summit, which is due to take place in just over three weeks, on July 7 and 8 in Türkiye.
28 billion pounds missing from Defense budget
According to British media, senior army officials have been warning for months that 28 billion pounds (32.5 billion euros) are missing from the army budget by 2030.
In his resignation letter on Thursday, now ex-minister John Healey accused Keir Starmer and his Finance Minister Rachel Reeves of not being prepared to mobilize the necessary resources “to defend the country in these times of growing threats”.
Arbitrations are difficult in the current economic context, because they involve cuts in other departments. John Healey notably deplored that the majority of the additional funds which would ultimately be granted – estimated between 13 and 18 billion pounds over four years according to the media – would be “concentrated on the end of the period” covered by the investment plan, despite the pressing issues.
This is “a trend” against which NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned, Fenella McGerty of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) told AFP.
“Years of lack of investment and industrial delay”
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged his allies to spend more. The Labor government has committed to increasing its military spending to 2.5% of GDP in 2027 (compared to 2.4% in 2025), then to 3% after 2029, and 3.5% in 2035. Despite this ambition, the United Kingdom will have to “make important choices” on its priorities, due to years of lack of investment and industrial delays, underlines Nick Reynolds, of the Rusi defense think tank.
Hailed by the military, the Strategic Defense Review – published in 2025 and which serves as the basis for the future investment plan – has prioritized the development of capabilities to make the armed forces “combat ready”.
The Army and the Royal Navy need to be upgraded, before even talking about their modernization, underlines Nick Reynolds. The United Kingdom was thus only able to mobilize one warship in the Mediterranean when the war in Iran broke out.
This is notably due to “the old trend (which consisted of) having fewer resources but more and more sophisticated”, taking longer and more expensive to produce, explains Jamie Gaskarth, of the Chatham House think tank.
Objective 3.5% of GDP devoted to Defense in 2035 (compared to 2.4% today)
On Friday, the now ex-Secretary of State for the Armed Forces Al Carns, himself a former soldier, regretted on the BBC that the future investment plan focuses too much on “how to fight a war of the past, rather than the next war”. He particularly deplored the lack of funding for autonomous systems (drones, etc.), even though the Strategic Defense Review had made it a priority to “learn the lessons” of the war in Ukraine.
According to an army official cited by the Times, the investment plan still focuses too much on traditional capabilities: ships, tanks, combat planes. Drones are “a high-precision and inexpensive artillery system”, underlines Nick Reynolds.
According to the Ministry of Defence, the Strategic Defense Review plans to double the resources allocated to autonomous systems to 4 billion pounds by 2029. Since July 2024, £450 million has been invested.
The United Kingdom is investing “but there is no complete shift,” notes Jamie Gaskarth. However, the government continues to warn of the reality of the threat. Last week Keir Starmer estimated that Russia could attack NATO “as early as 2030”.
London also regularly denounces the danger of hybrid war – involving non-military actions (cyber, disinformation, etc.) – coming from both Moscow and Beijing.
