The claims made by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito about voter turnout in Louisiana in a significant Voting Rights Act case were based on a misleading data analysis, as per a review by The Guardian.
In his opinion from last week that eliminated section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, Alito stated that Black voter turnout had surpassed white voter turnout in two of the five most recent presidential elections both nationally and in Louisiana. This claim was almost identical to a brief filed by the justice department, a crucial point Alito used to argue that the discrimination once necessitating the Voting Rights Act was no longer present.
Alito wrote in a majority opinion alongside five other conservative justices that significant social changes have taken place, particularly in the South where many Section 2 claims arise. The brief employed a unique methodology to calculate Black and white voter turnout in Louisiana, which was different from the typically preferred approach used by experts in the field.
The widely accepted approach calculates voter turnout as a proportion of the citizen voting age population or the eligible voter population, excluding non-citizens, felons, or mentally incapacitated individuals. When analyzing turnout numbers in Louisiana, The Guardian found that Black voter turnout exceeded white voter turnout only in the 2012 presidential election using the citizen voting age population.
It was noted that the approach used by the justice department to calculate turnout figures included ineligible voters in the denominator, leading to misleading statistics as per experts studying voter turnout. An acknowledgment was made by a justice department spokesperson regarding the method used, while a request for comment on the methodology from a supreme court spokesperson went unanswered.
Data from the Louisiana secretary of state’s office showed that Black turnout did not surpass white turnout in any of the last five presidential elections in Louisiana when calculated as a percentage of registered voters. According to a review of election data conducted by The Guardian, the turnout gap between Black and white voters has been widening in recent years.
The enactment of the Voting Rights Act in 1965 significantly reduced racial disparities in voting, particularly in the Southern states where Black voter registration rates were previously far behind those of white people. However, post-2012, Black voter turnout dropped and has consistently lagged behind white voter turnout in subsequent presidential elections.
The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County v Holder in 2013, which weakened the Voting Rights Act, is seen as a turning point leading to an increase in the racial turnout gap. Experts highlighted that it was misleading for Alito to suggest that the Voting Rights Act was no longer necessary due to decreased disparities, emphasizing the ongoing need for such protections.
