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Europe is moving backwards in a climate of high geopolitical uncertainty

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European stock markets are in the red on Wednesday, while the stagnation of discussions between Washington and Tehran fuels investors’ geopolitical concerns. The CAC 40 lost 0.35%, falling back below the 8,200 point mark: 8,180.27. The Eurostoxx 50 lost 0.40% to 6,083.51 points. The Dax fell by 0.99%.

Asked by telephone by the American channel ABC News, about the date on which Washington and Tehran could conclude a cooperation agreement, Donald Trump thinks that “it could happen next week”. However, the American president specified that a point of friction came from the dissatisfaction of the Iranians with the Israeli strikes targeting Lebanon.

Iran criticized the United States yesterday for violating the ceasefire after American strikes in the south of the country.

The US military shot down four Iranian drones and carried out strikes on a ground base in the south of the country, a US official said. She assured last night that she had repelled several Iranian attacks in the Gulf region, having intercepted missiles targeting Bahrain, shooting down drones targeting civilian ships and attacking ground targets on the Iranian island of Qeshm, in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced they had targeted an American base in retaliation for US strikes, according to state television Irib.

Moreover, the advisor to the Iranian supreme leader Mohsen Rezaï promises “a deluge of missiles and drones” in the event of new American aggression.

Furthermore, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi “maintained Beijing’s call for respect for the ceasefire in the Middle East.” He also expressed the hope that the United States and Iran would seek a compromise, the state news agency Xinhua reported on Wednesday.

For its part, the American Treasury announced Wednesday sanctions against the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the new Tehran agency responsible for collecting navigation rights in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. In a press release, the Treasury now considers that any person paying these fees is exposed to sanctions. He considers that these regulations “could provide support to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and benefit from their services”.

The OECD predicts a decline in global growth in 2026

Following American attacks in Iran and threats from Tehran, oil prices continue to rise. The barrel of Brent advances by 2.72%, flirting with 100 dollars: 98.55 USD. WTI advances 3.51% to 96.72 USD.

In this geopolitical context, the OECD explains this morning that in the hypothesis of a lasting settlement of the conflict – corresponding to the scenario of “disruptions limited in time” – the OECD forecasts that global growth would decline from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, before recovering to settle at 3.1% in 2027. In the “prolonged disruption” scenario, it would slow down to settle at 2.1% in 2026 then to 1.8% in 2027.

In the news of listed companies, Maison Pommery (14.54%) shows the strongest increase in the SRD market. The world number 2 in the production and marketing of champagnes is negotiating with Henkell International with a view to a strategic partnership. In detail, the project provides for the entry of this German sparkling wine group into the capital of Maison Pommery & Associés as a majority shareholder. If the transaction is successful, it would create a global player in sparkling wines, benefiting from a portfolio of strong and complementary brands, as well as an international commercial presence.

In addition, according to Alphavalue, India is on the verge of concluding a contract with Dassault Aviation (-0.41%) for the purchase of 114 Rafale for around 33 billion euros. Information also reported by Les Echos which cites local media. In February 2026, the Indian Defense Acquisition Council approved an envelope of 3,600 billion rupees for the armed forces. It included the purchase of these Rafales.

In Europe, Inditex climbed almost 4% in Madrid and is thus far at the top of the Euro Stoxx 50. The title of the clothing and accessories distributor published solid results in the first quarter of 2026 (ended at the end of April), marked in particular by better-than-expected sales. Over the first three months of its financial year, it saw its net profit increase by 5.4% to reach 1.4 billion euros and its operating result increase by 7% to 1.8 billion EUR, i.e. a margin improved by 24 basis points to 20.1%, in accordance with the consensus of market. Growing by 5.8% to EUR8.75 billion, its turnover turned out to be slightly higher than the EUR8.72 billion anticipated on average by analysts.

Euro zone: Composite PMI at its lowest in a year and a half

In terms of statistics, investors have taken note of the Composite PMI for the month of May. In the euro zone, it stood at 48.5 compared to 48.8 in April, signaling a moderate decline in overall activity. The pace of contraction in activity was even the most marked in a year and a half. The decline in overall activity resulted from the poor performance of the services sector last month, with manufacturing production continuing to increase (although at a slower pace than in April).

In Germany, it came out at 48.1 against a consensus of 47.8 after 46.9 in May. The PMI Composite stood at 48.8 against 48.6 expected after 48.4 the previous month.

In France, the S&P Global services PMI index deteriorated less than expected. In May, it went from 46.5 to 44.3 points, where analysts were counting on 42.9 points. However, this is the sharpest contraction in activity in five and a half years. For John Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, “the French services sector, already weakened before the outbreak of war in the Middle East, recorded a sharp deterioration in its performance in May. The PMI activity and new business indices fell again during the month and posted levels consistent with a recession in the sector in the coming months.”