PARIS: Global tourism – The sector facing geopolitical and health crises – Presse Agence

Geopolitical crises and the resurgence of the hantavirus are plunging global tourism, barely recovered from Covid-19, into a new zone of turbulence.

While it hoped to consolidate a vigorous post-pandemic recovery, the global tourism sector is facing a combination of crises which are once again darkening its prospects. Between geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the repercussions of the war in Ukraine and the emergence of a new health concern linked to the hantavirus, the industry, which represents more than 10% of global GDP, is navigating through troubled waters. Economic indicators testify to a growing hypersensitivity to external shocks, putting the resilience of travel stakeholders to the test.

A geopolitical context that weighs down air transport

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, marked by the American-Israeli offensive against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has caused a major energy shock. The surge in the price of kerosene has a direct impact on airlines, forced to drastically increase the cost of tickets. In Europe, several carriers are reducing their capacities to absorb these additional costs; Lufthansa, for example, announced the cancellation of thousands of flights.

This inflation weighs heavily on household budgets, which favor leisure and travel. A recent Ifop study, cited by the Alliance France Tourisme, reveals that four out of ten French people plan to review their vacation plans due to the international context. The trend is global: American, Australian and European tourists are hesitant to get involved, particularly fearing air transit zones located close to conflicts. Destinations in the Middle East, which had nevertheless recorded record growth in 2023-2024, are now experiencing a collapse in their attendance.

Hantavirus, the unexpected health risk

Added to this anxious climate is an unexpected health factor: the media coverage of cases of hantavirus. Although the authorities try to reassure, like Senator Philippe Tabarot affirming that “the French can travel as they wish”, the perception of risk is amplified by the high mortality rate of the virus, which can reach 40%. This new health specter fuels a feeling of general uncertainty and forces professionals, particularly cruise lines already very affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, to deploy new protocols to reassure their customers.

France, between refuge destination and economic fragility

The world’s leading tourist destination, France is not spared from this turbulence. If Treasury data for the year 2025 showed an increase in tourism exports, partly thanks to reports from travelers avoiding the Middle East, the more recent signals are worrying. Spring 2026 is marked by a drop in the number of foreign tourists, in particular German, Belgian, Dutch and American.

Professionals in the sector express their concern about a summer season which promises to be very uncertain, especially as France suffers from an image as a “too expensive” destination in a context of persistent energy inflation. However, the impact is not uniform across the territory. Certain coastal regions such as the Côte d’Azur are doing well by attracting customers looking for safe destinations. Conversely, the West and several rural areas are seeing declines in activity, forcing hosts to increase promotional offers to attract visitors.

Resilience to the test of multiple crises

Paradoxically, the geopolitical situation could offer opportunities to France. The “staycation” phenomenon (vacation at home or nearby), already observed during the health crisis, is gaining popularity again. European tourists could favor destinations accessible by car or train. “France is becoming a refuge destination,” analyzes consultant Dominique Lecea.

However, this local tourism is not enough to compensate for the loss of distant customers, particularly Asians and the Middle East, whose purchasing power is traditionally higher. In Parisian palaces, suites remain unoccupied, illustrating a jaws effect feared by the entire profession: a drop in attendance combined with an increase in operating costs. Faced with this new era of instability, the sector must accelerate its structural transformation by diversifying its markets, reducing its dependence on air transport and accelerating its ecological transition to control its energy costs. For now, reservations are slow and global tourism, once again, is on the front line.

Bernard BERTUCCO VAN DAMME via Press Agency.