Western Sahara: Abdelaziz Rahabis Analysis of a Geopolitical Turning Point under American Influence

In a statement published on May 3, 2026, former diplomat and ex-Algerian minister Abdelaziz Rahabi delivers a no holds barred analysis of the situation in Western Sahara.

Abdelaziz Rahabi describes a diplomatic acceleration that he deems artificial, orchestrated according to him by an American strategy aiming to transfer the sovereignty of the Sahrawi people to Morocco, disregarding the legal frameworks established by the United Nations.

According to Abdelaziz Rahabi, Washington is now making a clear break with the historical mediations of James Baker or Christopher Ross. The current American administration would follow an agenda marked by urgency, acting more as a stakeholder than as an impartial mediator. This shift, initiated by the Abraham Accords and the American recognition of the Moroccaness of the territory in 2020, would have triggered a cascading effect within Western powers, transforming a decolonization conflict into an issue of influence struggle on the Atlantic facade and in the Sahel.

The former diplomat emphasizes that the Moroccan autonomy plan of 2007, long considered a dead letter, is now being promoted not because of its intrinsic relevance, but due to the diplomatic and financial power of Rabat’s supporters, including France and the United Arab Emirates.

The analysis by Mr. Rahabi also points to a worrisome paralysis of the UN Security Council. He believes that without the vigilance of Russia, China, and Algeria’s insistence on the principle of self-determination, the Minurso could have been diverted from its initial mission to become a mere instrument accompanying the accomplished fact.

The argument of the “too long duration” of the conflict, often invoked by former colonial powers, is perceived by Rahabi as a denial of consideration for the 200,000 Sahrawi refugees. He pleads for a return to the long-term diplomacy, the only guarantee of a credible decolonization process where the Sahrawi people would remain the sole decision-maker of their destiny through consultations.

For Abdelaziz Rahabi, this regional reconfiguration carries the seeds of a programmed instability. Algeria, faithful to its sovereignist doctrine, cannot accept the emergence of a new security reality at its borders, especially as it perceives behind this architecture the will of the United States to consolidate Israel’s influence in North Africa through its alliance with Morocco.

In conclusion, the former diplomat warns that Western Sahara is now part of a “growing crescent of tensions” connecting Libya and Mali. Faced with what he calls a coalition of hostile forces, he reminds that any solution deprived of international and popular legitimacy will remain precarious, endangering the overall security of a region already under high tension.

Samia Naït Iqbal