Amid military tensions in the Middle East and an economic war between major powers, a clear trend emerges: the control of strategic dependencies is becoming the central issue of the 21st century. Access to rare resources often triggers conflicts.
The Strait of Hormuz, a laboratory of energy power
The sudden escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz highlights how contemporary geopolitics is shaped by the control of vital flows. The seizure of an Iranian ship by the US Navy led to an immediate escalation, with Tehran threatening to retaliate while diplomatic negotiations falter. Markets reacted swiftly, with Brent prices surging around 5% to nearly $95 per barrel, and European stock markets falling due to energy uncertainty. In this area where almost a third of the world’s oil passes through by sea, Iran’s strategy is not just military – it is based on disrupting a crucial point in global trade. International relations history shows that these vital passages, such as the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca, and the Strait of Hormuz, serve as power multipliers. A relatively weak actor can create a disproportionate systemic effect. Iran understands this well: even without a military victory, the mere threat to energy flow allows it to influence the strategic calculations of Washington, Europe, and China. This logic harkens back to the analyses of American historian Alfred Thayer Mahan on maritime power: controlling or disrupting trade routes remains one of the most effective forms of strategic projection.
The invisible economic war: the weapon of supply chains
However, the true geopolitical transformation is no longer solely in straits or seas but in industrial supply chains. China has realized this by strengthening its control over exports of rare earths and critical minerals essential for batteries, semiconductors, and green technologies. European companies operating in China now denounce administrative procedures capable of blocking the export of essential components at any time. This strategy is part of a broader transformation of globalization: the economy is no longer just a space for trade but has become a strategic rivalry arena. For years, Washington has used financial sanctions and technological restrictions against Beijing. China’s response involves leveraging its structural advantage in critical raw materials. This logic aligns with what economist Albert Hirschman described in the 1940s: commercial relationships can create asymmetric dependencies that become instruments of power. In the case of rare earths, the asymmetry is obvious: China largely dominates global production and refining. For Europe, the situation is particularly delicate. The European Union remains heavily dependent on the Chinese industry while facing a growing trade deficit with Beijing, fueling political debates on deindustrialization and economic sovereignty.
Towards a geopolitics of strategic dependencies
These two crises, energy in the Middle East and industrial in Asia, reveal a deeper shift in the international order. Power is now measured not only in military divisions or nuclear arsenals but in the ability to control the structural dependencies of the global system. Economist Henry Farrell and political scientist Abraham Newman speak of “weaponized interdependence”: global economic networks have become tools of political coercion. The United States uses the dollar and financial systems to impose sanctions; China mobilizes its industrial chains; regional powers like Iran leverage their geographical position in energy flows. This evolution places Europe in a paradoxical position. The continent remains one of the world’s largest economic powers, but it controls few of the infrastructures or strategic resources that structure globalization. Its energy, industrial, and technological dependencies expose it to multiple pressures. That’s why Brussels is now increasing strategic sovereignty policies: energy diversification, industrial relocation, strategies on critical materials. But these policies face a fundamental reality: globalization has created a system of intertwined dependencies that are extremely difficult to dismantle without major economic costs. The world is entering a new phase of systemic competition where open conflicts, like those around the Strait of Hormuz, are just the visible surface of a deeper rivalry for control over the invisible infrastructures of power.
