The oil and gas sector is the most powerful lobby on Earth. For 30 years, it has been pushing back against changes, according to a network of NGOs.
The war in the Middle East and how it disrupts the global economy and energy security brutally reminds the planet of its dependence on hydrocarbons. However, in 2023, when the international community committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels to combat climate change, some had predicted the beginning of the end of oil.
Is it all the more reason to definitively move away from oil, the most greenhouse gas-emitting energy source? Despite numerous calls to do so, the promise made in Dubai during COP28, the UN climate conference, seems to no longer be on the agenda. Some are more straightforward about it than others. President Donald Trump, for example, declared through his campaign slogan: “Drill, baby, drill,” and confirmed it with military interventions in two oil-rich countries, Venezuela and Iran.
In this context, over 50 nations are participating next week in Colombia in an unprecedented meeting on the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels.
Economic Stake
“If the oil companies suddenly shut down shop, it would be an unprecedented global economic disaster. Banking giants like HSBC would go bankrupt,” said Claudio Angelo, the international policy coordinator for the Brazilian NGO network Observatorio do Clima.
If financial markets are so sensitive to oil price fluctuations, it’s because oil-related assets remain crucial. Economies like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, or Iraq are heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. Other economies, like Colombia, rely heavily on these revenues, and President Gustavo Petro is demanding a sovereign debt relief for the country to fulfill the promise of no longer signing new oil exploration contracts.
Lack of Will
Major oil exporting powers like the United States, Canada, and Australia, however, have the means to successfully transition their energy systems, says Bill Hare, director of the Climate Analytics institute. “It’s a matter of political will,” he stated.
But geopolitical and economic tensions have largely overshadowed the fight against climate change in recent years. Some governments, starting with the Trump administration, now openly display their climate skepticism.
Powerful Lobby
“The oil and gas sector is the most powerful lobby on Earth,” says Claudio Angelo. “For 30 years, it has been working to resist changes.”
For example, as revealed in a 2023 AFP investigation, consulting firm McKinsey had been advocating behind the scenes for its oil clients, from the American company ExxonMobil to the Saudi giant Aramco, during the preparations for COP28.
Who Pays the Price?
To transition away from oil and steer their economies, oil-dependent producing countries and poor nations require significant financial support. “There needs to be a certain amount of goodwill from major and medium economic powers to create an international system that facilitates this transition,” explained Bill Hare.
Record
However, there have been advancements. In 2025, renewable energies accounted for nearly 50% of global electricity capacity, a record according to Irena, the international agency supporting energy transition worldwide. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and a leader in renewable energy production, significantly increased its wind and solar capacities last year.
In Pakistan, solar energy, once marginal in 2020, has become one of the primary sources of electricity. In several regions of Australia and the United States, the rise of renewables has lowered electricity bills, as highlighted by Bill Hare.
