War in the Middle East: what are the Abraham Accords, which Donald Trump would like to impose on Saudi Arabia and Qatar?

A new pitfall for peace in the Middle East? In a message published Monday May 25 on his Truth Social platform, Donald Trump “demand” that the countries of the region “immediately sign the Abraham Accords”. Initialed in 2020 during the previous mandate of the American president, they aim to normalize relations between Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

“If Iran signs its agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an honor to welcome it into this unprecedented global coalition”added the American head of state, while specifically urging Saudi Arabia and Qatar to do the same. Franceinfo looks back at the history of these agreements, hampered for six years by the explosive situation in this region of the world.

A success of Donald Trump’s first term

Donald Trump can triumph on September 15, 2020, right in front of the White House. Sitting next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the American president officially signed the Abraham Accords with Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, named after the patriarch of the three monotheistic religions (Jewish, Christian and Muslim). The Republican leader thus allows significant progress in improving relations between Israel and Arab countries, a first in the 21st century. Previously, only Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) had buried the hatchet with the Jewish state.

The billionaire then prides himself on “change the course of history”. “At least five or six countries will come very quickly”he assures. The sequel proves him only partly right. Sudan and Morocco agree to normalize their relations with Israel a few weeks later. The list ends there, while Donald Trump fails to get re-elected, beaten by Democrat Joe Biden, who succeeds him at the start of 2021.

An initiative torpedoed by the attacks of October 7

The Biden administration is trying to move the initiative forward. “I hope to continue the process of building quality relations between Israel and its neighbors – near and far – through the support and extension of the Abraham Accords”declares the head of American diplomacy, Anthony Blinken, in June 2022. Just as under Donald Trump, Washington is trying in particular to rally one of the main players in the region: Saudi Arabia.

In September 2023, the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed ben Salman, affirmed on the American channel Fox News that peace between Riyadh and Israel “gets closer”. The Hamas terrorist attacks on Israeli soil on October 7, 2023 changed the situation. “Hamas attacked when no one asked it, Iran did not ask it. (…) It was to derail the Abraham Accords”commented Admiral Michel Olhagaray on franceinfo at the time.

The bloody war led by Benjamin Netanyahu in the Gaza Strip further removes any prospect of rapprochement between Israel and its neighbors. For its part, Saudi Arabia defends the Palestinian cause, favoring the two-state solution, rejected by Tel Aviv.

Donald Trump’s return to power in January 2025 does not correspond to an explicit relaunch of the process. Kazakhstan, however, announced in November that it would join the Abraham Accords. “This is the first of my second term, the first of a long series”promises the Republican nominee on Truth Social.

A request far from being accepted by the Arab countries

The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, then Tehran’s response against several countries in the Middle East, further fractured relations between the different protagonists in the region. Donald Trump’s statement, “demanding that all countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords”can therefore surprise.

In his long message on Truth Social, the President of the United States specifies that “this should start with the immediate signing of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and all other countries should follow”. The subject was put on the table in November, during Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House, according to the American site Axios. “Trump asked Crown Prince Mohammed to join the Abraham Accords. The Saudi Crown Prince refused and the meeting turned sour”reports the media.

“It seems to me highly unlikely to see any expansion of these agreements in the short term”estimated former American diplomat Aaron David Miller to AFP. Pakistan has already rejected any steps in this direction. “It goes against our fundamental ideologies”declared the Minister of Defense, Khawaja Asif, during an interview on Pakistani television Samaa TV, as reported in particular by the Saudi daily Arab News. “How do you want to sit with these people who you can’t trust for even a day?” he added, pointing to Israel.

“It’s complicated because Israel is radical in its approach, in Gaza, in the West Bank or in Lebanon”explains Ronald Hatto, professor of international relations at Sciences Po, on franceinfo. But Donald Trump assures that these agreements were at the origin of a “financial, economic and social boom, even in these times of war and conflict”. The United Arab Emirates, however, have been a favored target of Iran since the start of the war on February 28. For Aaron David Miller, the “Dubai’s supposed model, which is based on a certain security and stability, is now likely to be called into question”. Which makes it all the more unlikely that other Gulf states will follow the Emirati example.