Is a US-Iran deal still possible?

The situation in the Gulf has changed little since Donald Trump announced on April 21 to indefinitely extend the ceasefire, concluded two weeks earlier.

• Tehran still controls traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Navy continues to impose a blockade on exports to and from Iranian ports.
• Since April 21, 94 commercial ships have been “redirected” by Washington, and 4 have been neutralized, according to the Central Command of the US Army (CENTCOM).

If the American president does not seem to have given up the possibility of resuming strikes on Iran, Washington’s main allies in the region – Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in particular – are trying to seek a negotiated solution to end the war, although the three have different positions on the type of agreement the United States should seek.

The Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, Asim Munir, is expected today, Friday May 22, in Tehran, where Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Raza Naqvi has been since Wednesday 20. 

• Munir, the first Pakistani military leader to be invited to the White House – where he was received by Trump in June 2025 – has been the main mediator between Washington and Tehran since the start of the war.
• His presence in the Iranian capital could signal progress in the discussions.
• Speaking from Sweden, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday hailed the ongoing “movement” as a “good thing”, while adding that he did not want to “exaggerate anything”.
• Tomorrow, Saturday 23, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be received in Beijing, where he will have to meet with Xi Jinping and try to convince China to participate more actively in the negotiations.. A team of Qatari negotiators is also expected today in Tehran.

According to the Iranian news agency ISNA, the current discussions have “reduced the gaps between the two parties to a certain extent.” Two key points, however, could make an initial agreement particularly difficult to conclude:

• Supreme Leader Khamenei reportedly ordered that enriched Iranian uranium not be transferred abroad, but this is one of the most important demands on the American side, in addition to a commitment from Tehran to cease enrichment for at least ten years.
• The Republican administration also rejects any Iranian toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president said yesterday it was an “international sea lane” that must remain free and open, while Rubio warned such an arrangement would make any deal with the US “impossible”.

Satellite images analyzed by the Financial Times reveal a continued build-up of military power at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport, where the number of American tanker planes has increased from around thirty at the start of March to 52 this week. This upward trend began before the US-Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, and did not stop despite the ceasefire that came into effect in early April..