War in the Middle East: how to explain Donald Trump’s change of heart, who renounces a new attack against Iran?

Donald Trump finally announced on Monday May 18 that he would not attack Iran on Tuesday. According to the American president, an offensive was planned while Tehran does not submit to Washington’s demands. This time, Donald Trump did not set an ultimatum. But he declared on Sunday that he “nothing would be left” of Iran if the country did not accept the conditions set by Washington for an agreement, starting with the renunciation of its nuclear program.

The American president had never spoken about this planned attack before Monday and a message on his Truth Social platform. Donald Trump assures that a request from several leaders of Gulf countries dissuaded him from carrying out this attack: the leaders of Qatar (Sheikh Tamim), Saudi Arabia (Mohammed ben Salman) and the United Arab Emirates (Mohammed ben Zayed). These three men, according to Trump, believe in a deal“entirely acceptable to the United States and all countries in the Middle East.”

Serious discussions are underway, according to Donald Trump. No details are given and this is obviously not the first time that the White House tenant has made this speech. He nevertheless still brandishes the stick and specifies that he asked Pete Hegseth, the head of the Pentagon, and the chief of staff Dan Caine, to be ready to attack if the negotiations failed.

Although there is no proof of this change of heart, because Donald Trump is the only one to claim that an attack was planned, according to leaks in recent days, the president’s patience was indeed exhausted and he seemed ready to strike. security to discuss options. Iran sent a response to the recently proposed text on Sunday, still unsatisfactory according to the White House.

The observation is undeniable: Donald Trump has given up on striking, once again, it would be the sixth time. Although the Gulf countries certainly played their part, it is likely that other factors came into play. This war is unpopular. According to the most recent poll, 64% of Americans believe that this conflict was a bad decision. Raising arms has a cost: oil prices are still as unstable as ever.

Iran has resources. It is a proven regime, which has suffered heavy military losses, but it is not the land-based country described by the Donald Trump administration. Iran has retained missiles and launchers, still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and is resisting the blockade imposed by the United States. Donald Trump will perhaps end up resolving to bomb Iran but a diplomatic solution remains the best option if he manages to give it the appearance of victory.

Since the ceasefire came into force on April 8 after almost 40 days of strikes, negotiations have been underway to try to find an agreement but the positions of the two parties remain very far apart, particularly on the nuclear aspect. Only one session of discussions between American and Iranian representatives took place, on April 11 in Islamabad, ending in failure. Iran reiterated its demands, demanding in particular the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad and the lifting of international sanctions suffocating its economy.