War in the Middle East: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz masks other equally crucial issues

The situation remains deadlocked in the Middle East, Monday May 11. The declarations increase the tension, but the negotiations do not move forward. Latest example: the Iranian proposal, deemed “totally unacceptable”, Sunday May 10 by Donald Trump. The American president did not detail Tehran’s response, transmitted through Pakistan.

According to elements published in le Wall Street JournalIran is proposing a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a simultaneous lifting of the blockade of Iranian ports by the American navy. A position that is ultimately fairly constant, with Tehran also maintaining its right to civilian nuclear power. On the ground, the situation seems frozen: since the attack on a container ship chartered by the CMA-CGM last week, only four ships have crossed the strait in four days, the lowest level since the start of the war.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz thus appears to be the tree that hides the forest of the real issues in the negotiations: the nuclear program and Iranian military capabilities. This is what pushes Benjamin Netanyahu to assert that “the war is not over.” On the American channel CBS, the Israeli Prime Minister insisted on the need to “withdraw from Iran” stockpiles of enriched uranium, dismantle enrichment sites and end support for proxies as well as ballistic missile production.

Listening to him, the results of the operations remain insufficient, even though he had promised his population a war “which would guarantee the security of Israel”. Benyamin Netanyahu is therefore pushing to extend military operations. Asked about how to get uranium out of the country, he replied bluntly: “let’s go in and take it out.” A posture which also fits into a political context, the Prime Minister himself being in the campaign, after a telephone exchange with Donald Trump.

It remains to be seen whether this foreshadows a resumption of hostilities. The scenario cannot be ruled out, even if the moment seems inauspicious. Donald Trump is in fact expected in China from May 13 to 15, a state visit confirmed by Beijing. The American president hears “put pressure” on China, while production prices there reached a record level since 2022 in April, a context not very favorable to peaceful discussions between the two powers.