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Will the next war in the Middle East be between Turkey and Israel?

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On an eight-hour detour. On April 27, 2026, the Israeli presidential plane traces an unlikely arc through Europe and Russia to avoid Turkey. Destination: Kazakhstan. The reason? Recep Tayyip Erdogan has just denied his airspace to President Isaac Herzog. Last March, the Turkish leader declared that “Netanyahu surpassed Hitler in barbarity”. Ten days later, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett claimed that Turkey was “the new Iran”. Warlike words have replaced diplomacy between these two former allies.

How did we get here? The contrast is striking. In 1949, Turkey became the first predominantly Muslim country to recognize the state of Israel. The goal: to align with the Western camp and join NATO, which was achieved in 1951. During the Cold War, Ankara managed to maintain its relations with Tel Aviv while appeasing Arab powers. How? By adopting a cautious neutrality in major conflicts (Suez in 1956, Six Days in 1967, Yom Kippur in 1973). And when Turkey recognized the Palestinian state in 1988, economic relations with Israel did not suffer. The 1990s even marked the golden age of Israeli-Turkish relations.