War in the Middle East: there is a willingness on both sides to cease arms and enter into negotiation

Published on April 17, 2026 at 22:41 Updated on April 17, 2026 at 22:42

Expert in the Arab world, Gilles Kepel was the guest on “Tout est politique” on Friday, April 17. The specialist answered Myriam Encaoua’s questions about the possibility of a future peace agreement between Iran and the United States.

This text corresponds to a transcript of part of the above interview. Click on the video to watch the full interview.

Myriam Encaoua: Is the purchasing power of Americans Donald Trump’s weak point more than anything else?

Gilles Kepel: Yes, this explains what is currently happening in the Iran war where we are moving away, at least for now, from military confrontation and focusing on economic issues.

With already, but we must remain very cautious, a significant drop in the price of oil which has lost six dollars. How do you see this day Gilles Kepel? Because it is very eventful on the side of the White House. Tonight, the American president tells AFP that a comprehensive peace agreement with Iran is close. Should we believe him?

He has already said it many times. When you lie a lot, you no longer believe it. But why not? Because indeed, there has been a cessation of military activities. Even in the past two days, Iran itself has not attacked. It was proxies from Iraq, Iraqi militias, who sent some missiles and drones to Kuwait and Bahrain. The UAE and Saudi Arabia were not affected. And in Lebanon, we now have a form of active non-belligerence. It is clear that on both sides there is a willingness, for now, to stop the weapons and enter into a different type of negotiation, which is an economic and political negotiation.

Even the Iranians? For you, do they intend to enter into this new phase now?

It is very difficult to say when we do not have the numbers and when everything about Iran is an opaque continent for information. But the calculation we can make is that Iran is in an economically catastrophic situation. This was the case before. There have been massive infrastructure destructions and the counter-blockade, that of the Americans, which pushed back about ten ships loaded with Iranian oil, is something that works.

Tactical victory of the American naval counter-blockade?

For now, yes. In other words, we thought that the Americans would not dare. Some commentators said that the United States would never dare to stop a tanker with a Chinese flag approaching American destroyers. However, the tankers did not have Chinese flags because they were bulk carriers under sanctions, oil under sanctions. They had flags from Malawi or convenience flags. And so none of them got through. So, in a way, the United States has managed to set in motion a process that affects China’s supply of Iranian oil and, above all, reduces Iran’s income.

Do you think China could also have influenced this opening? We have this opening announced by the Iranian Foreign Minister. Can we really talk about an opening tonight, the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz?

Let’s wait and see, but until now, the Iranians had never said they were reopening. Indeed, the Chinese cannot afford, even if for now they have significant hydrocarbon reserves, for this situation to last forever because they are a manufacturing empire that needs a constant flow of hydrocarbons, otherwise they will be in a bad situation. This is not necessarily what they want. Moreover, we can see that, from all sides, there is a desire to slow down. For example, if the oil flow was blocked for a long time, and also LNG, we will have problems with kerosene and certain airlines have already – KLM, Lufthansa – canceled flights and blocked a number of routes starting from the end of the month.

Click on the video to watch the full interview.