Maintaining contrasting relationships with Iran, the United States, and Israel, the six Gulf Arab countries have their fault lines exposed by the war in the Middle East. The rivalry between the two major petro-monarchies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is further deepened. Facing a diplomatic deadlock between Tehran and Washington, the bellicose threats from Donald Trump, and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf petro-monarchies are engulfed in uncertainty. While waiting for the situation to unlock, they watch their longstanding differences thicken and their divergences materialize.
“The differences are not new, but the conflict has accentuated the divisions,” notes Jean-Paul Ghoneim, a researcher at Iris and a specialist in Gulf countries, contacted by BFM.
The first point of disagreement is the aftermath of the war that affected them all economically and militarily. On one side, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia advocate for dialogue and support Pakistan’s mediation efforts. On the other hand, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, aligned with the United States and Israel, take a more hawkish stance.
Heterogeneous relations with Tehran explain historical postures. While the six countries coexist with their Persian neighbor within the Gulf Cooperation Council, their relationships vary in complexity. Kuwait is driven by its diplomatic tradition and geographical location. Oman, despite not having strong proximity to Tehran, bases its national security on neutrality. Qatar strengthened its relations with Iran during the blockade imposed by its rich neighbors from 2017 to 2021.
Saudi Arabia sees Iran as a regional rival but prioritizes stability for its ambitions. Riyadh participated in mediation attempts between Washington and Tehran in mid-April alongside Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan. Apart from the Iranian issue, Saudi Arabia is aligning with Sunni axis countries to diversify its alliances and reduce dependency on the United States for security.
The UAE, on the other hand, considers the Islamic Republic a security threat. Emirati support for the American-Israeli operation has made them a prime target for Iranian retaliation, experiencing over 3,000 attacks since late February. Relations with Israel following the Abraham Accords have increased tensions with regional actors like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, triggering rivalries.
The recent withdrawal of the UAE from OPEC indicates a broader economic competition that may spread beyond Saudi and Emirati borders, affecting all Gulf countries. The countries are united in appearance, but Tehran is well aware of the behind-the-scenes tensions that are gaining momentum among its Arab neighbors.
