Against all odds, China’s exports increased by 14.1% globally and by 11.3% to the United States in April. An impressive resilience amidst international crisis.
China appears less affected than expected by the Middle East war. It even rebounded this April, with the growth of its exports to the United States, according to figures released by Customs Administration on Saturday.
Globally, its exports rose by 14.1% year-on-year last month, and imports surged by 25.3% over the same period. These figures exceeded expectations, with a panel of economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipating an increase of only 8.4% for exports and 20% for imports. They are also significantly higher than those of March when exports only grew by 2.5% year-on-year, less than anticipated by specialists.
As for the United States, exports rose by 11.3% year-on-year in April, after experiencing a decline in previous months: minus 11% in January-February and minus 26.5% in March compared to the previous year. A drop due to American tariffs.
A long-awaited summit next week
This notable progress comes as Donald Trump is expected in Beijing next week. The agenda for discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping includes trade balance, tariffs, and trade imbalance in favor of China.
The two countries have been engaged in a fierce trade war for several years, but a turning point was reached in 2025 with exorbitant tariffs and multiple restrictions following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The two leaders agreed to a temporary ceasefire in October, the outcome of which is awaited.
In late February, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a large part of Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, Washington maintained other specific tariffs against China and could introduce new ones. Chinese exports to the United States had decreased by 20% in 2025, while China had recorded a record global trade surplus of over $1.2 trillion. Shipments to the United States totaled $36.8 billion in April 2026, compared to $33 billion in 2025.
Too much reliance on international trade
Exports continue to drive the Chinese economy. However, this dependence remains a vulnerability as the domestic economic situation has deteriorated. Currently, the country is facing a real estate crisis, local government debt, overcapacity in production, deflationary pressures, and high youth unemployment.
For now, Chinese trade seems to withstand the crisis in the Middle East. Experts even expect exports to remain at a high level in the near future, supported by strong demand for semiconductors and green technologies.
Diversification of production and energy supplies better protects China than others against the immediate impact of war. But experts warn of the risks of a prolonged crisis and a slowdown in the global economy for a nation so dependent on international trade.
