United States and Brazil: trade, customs rights, elections… The meeting between Trump and Lula closely scrutinized

Relations between Brasilia and the United States have been particularly tumultuous, even though the two men at opposite ends of the ideological spectrum admit to a certain “chemistry” on a personal level, as seen in Donald Trump’s message on Truth Social. Their first official meeting, last October in Malaysia, was cordial.

Venezuela

Subsequently, Washington largely lifted the punitive surcharge imposed on Brazil in retaliation for the legal troubles of the former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of Donald Trump who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempted coup. But much has changed since then: the United States has toppled the socialist leader Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and has engaged in a war against Iran, backing Israel. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who in 2025 accused Donald Trump of wanting to “become the emperor of the world,” strongly condemned these two American interventions. “I am against any political interference, regardless of the country,” declared the left-wing president last month.

Lula, 80, arrives in Washington politically weakened after severe setbacks in the Brazilian Parliament. Less than six months before the presidential elections, he is neck-and-neck in the polls with Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of his predecessor. Lula aims to “strengthen his personal relationship with Trump” in order to reduce the risk of American interference in the elections, explains Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo. The Trump administration views South America as part of the natural sphere of influence of the United States, openly influencing the elections there by pushing its ideological allies.

Organized Crime

Security is the main concern of Brazilian voters, and the fight against organized crime is an important component of the relationship between Washington and Brasilia. Brazilian Finance Minister Dario Durigan, part of the delegation, emphasized on Wednesday that his country wants to strengthen cooperation in combating drug cartels. Brasilia and Washington signed an agreement in April to combat arms and drug trafficking.

Donald Trump has made combating what he calls “narcoterrorism” a priority in his second term, classifying criminal groups as foreign terrorist organizations and using this as justification to capture the Venezuelan leader. According to Oliver Stuenkel, Brazil aims to “reduce the risk” of Washington classifying the country’s two main gangs as terrorist organizations.

“The United States increasingly views these groups as sophisticated transnational criminal organizations with regional reach,” said Rebecca Bill Chavez, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank based in Washington. “But in Brazil, this raises serious concerns regarding legal, political, and sovereignty implications.”

Rare Earths

The Lula-Trump meeting was also expected to address the American interest in Brazil’s vast reserves of rare earth minerals, essential for the production of many technological products. Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earths, behind China.