War in Iran: towards a final standoff between Washington and Tehran?

The days pass and no deal has been revealed. Donald Trump declared that he would quickly decide on a possible agreement with Iran. The American president announced, Friday, May 29, the holding of a meeting in a secure room at the White House to make a “final decision” on the proposal, which would extend the truce of early April by an additional 60 days, thus giving negotiators time to reach to a permanent end to war. “President Trump will only conclude a deal that is beneficial to America and respects its red lines,” a White House official told Reuters after a meeting of about two hours in the “Situation Room.” On Friday, an Iranian source declared that a political agreement had been reached but that it had not yet been “finalized”.

Donald Trump reiterated his red lines: Iran must end its hold on the Strait of Hormuz and must dismantle its capacity to manufacture a nuclear weapon, two conditions that Tehran has not accepted. “Iran must commit to never possessing a nuclear weapon. The Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened, without toll, for free navigation in both directions,” said the American president, adding that nuclear materials would be “unearthed” by the United States. A senior Iranian source, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the potential deal does not include any nuclear issues.

The initial memorandum should in any case not address in detail the Iranian nuclear enrichment program. Donald Trump has previously indicated that a 20-year suspension of enrichment would be acceptable. According to certain sources interviewed by CNN, Iran would have proposed a much shorter suspension.

The Strait of Hormuz at the heart of the debates…

Both sides see the agreement on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as a first step, after three months of paralysis of this crucial sea route which caused a sharp rise in the price of crude oil and other raw materials. According to certain information collected by CNN, Iran would authorize the return of maritime traffic in the strait to its pre-war level over a period of 30 days. Iran is pursuing “intelligent management of the Strait of Hormuz”, said Ebrahim Azizi, head of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament, on Friday. “The measures and control mechanisms put in place by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz are permanent and certainly not temporary,” he added.

The spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaeil Baghaei, declared on state television that management of the strait should be decided by Iran and Oman.

According to the Iranian agency Fars, the strait would be reopened under Tehran’s conditions after the lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ships. The American Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, clarified that the American blockade would be lifted gradually if this happened.

…and that of Iran’s frozen assets

Another major subject still on the discussion table: Iran’s frozen assets. The Fars agency indicated that an agreement had been reached to release 12 billion dollars. Iran demands the immediate release of billions of dollars of assets held in banks abroad. However, a senior US official told CNN last week that the release of Iranian assets would only happen once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Apparently referring to these assets, Donald Trump declared Friday that “no money will be exchanged, until further notice.”

Some other unknowns remain, reports CNN. Will the 60-day process envisaged in the memorandum of understanding be defined as an extension of the ceasefire or as a definitive end to hostilities?

In the meantime, Washington continues to put pressure on Tehran. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual forum devoted to defense and intelligence in Asia, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Saturday that the United States was prepared to resume strikes against Iran if it was not possible to reach an agreement. The head of the Pentagon indicated that Donald Trump was “patient”. He’s probably not the only one.