Massive Russian strikes on Ukraine: what is Moscow really looking for, which is no longer advancing on the front?

Struggling on the Ukrainian front, where no notable progress has been made for months, Moscow is seeking to bring its military force back to the forefront. The Russian army carried out a massive bombing campaign on the night of Saturday May 23 to Sunday May 24. In total, no less than “90 missiles and 600 drones”of which 55 and 549 respectively were intercepted, were used according to the Ukrainian army. The strikes left at least four dead, around a hundred injured and considerable damage.

Remarkably, Moscow also used in the same evening its Orechnik hypersonic ballistic missile, of intermediate range and capable of carrying nuclear warheads. “This is only the third use of such a weapon”specifies to franceinfo the researcher Ulrich Bounat, author of Hybrid War in Ukraine, what are the prospects?. The attack shocked European capitals. Emmanuel Macron condemned a “flight forward” of Moscow, while the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, described the use of Orechnik as“irresponsible escalation”. “Its use is purely political and makes no sense from a military point of view, it is very expensive and not very accurate”adds the specialist.

What is Moscow looking for? Officially, this campaign of strikes is a response to a Ukrainian drone strike which targeted the dormitory of a high school in Starobilsk, in the Lugansk region, during the night from Thursday to Friday. According to Moscow, this strike destroyed a dormitory where dozens of teenagers were sleeping, killing 21 people and injuring more than 40 others. “It is impossible that Russia could have built up or prepared for such a large arsenal of strikes in 24 to 48 hours, more likely it spent weeks preparing for such an intensification”analyse le rapportquotidien de l’ONG Institute for the Study of War.

It is more likely that Moscow “aims to punish Ukraine for drone strikes carried out in the Moscow region” in recent weeks, believes Ulrich Bounat, “while reminding the rest of the world that the country is a great power, which has the capacity for nuclear escalation.” This strike campaign is also a message sent to the Russians, who are increasingly doubting the merits of the war. “Russia wants to show itself strong and united with its population”analyzes Ulrich Bounat, who points out the disastrous image of the parade commemorating Russia’s victory in 1945 on May 9, without tanks and shortened to 45 minutes.

On Monday, Russian diplomacy added another layer, by calling on foreign nationals living in kyiv, including diplomatic staff, to leave the Ukrainian capital before further bombings. A message repeated by its leader Sergei Lavrov to his American counterpart Marco Rubio during a rare call.

Enough to attract the wrath of Western countries. France thus brushed aside the Russian warning. “We are used to threats of [Vladimir] Poutine. “Evacuation is out of the question.”commented the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, questioned by journalists. The European Union, for its part, summoned the Russian charge d’affaires to Brussels, declared a spokesperson, Anitta Hipper, on X, specifying that the EU delegation would also remain in the Ukrainian capital.

In its warning message on Monday, Moscow said it was planning strikes against “decision centers” et “enterprises of the military-industrial complex” in kyiv. Ulrich Bounat sees above all “a communication operation” : “kyiv’s arms factories are already being hit by Russia, which has also been careful to avoid hitting official buildings until now”. A way to create a diversion, while the Russian army “is not capable of obtaining results on the ground”.

The front line has been almost frozen for months, with Russia having captured only a few villages since the start of the year. “Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the capacity to prevail in this war”tranche Ulrich Bounat. “If Russia’s summer offensive achieves nothing, then the question of how we exit the war will arise in the fall”espère le spécialiste.

Some signs suggest growing discomfort within the Kremlin. During May, a document drawn up in February by the presidential administration services was published by the independent Russian media Dos’e and translated by The Great Continent. It contains a series of arguments to prepare the population for an end to war, under cover of “victoire”in cas d’accords défavorables à Moscow. “There is therefore the conjunction, on the one hand, of the beginnings of awareness of a military failure and of a rising revolt in the ruling circles of the Kremlin and, on the other hand, of a Russian society which (…) is beginning to move,” analysis from Atlantico Alexandre Melnik, associate professor of geopolitics at ICN Business School Nancy-Metz.

While waiting for a peace agreement, kyiv, lacking men and equipment, must resist the invader’s strikes. The Ukrainian army is still very dependent on foreign interceptors, including the American Patriot system. “I am grateful to everyone who expressed words of support today. But concrete measures to strengthen air defense are also necessary: ​​missile deliveries must not be interrupted for a single day.”recalled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday.