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War in the Middle East: Global Economic Consequences

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Here are the latest global economic developments on Sunday around 11:30 PM GMT, as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth week.

– Oil: Slightly up on Monday Oil prices opened higher on Monday after the United States and Israel indicated over the weekend that the war would continue for several more weeks. The West Texas Intermediate barrel, the American reference for delivery in May, opened up 1.78% at $100.10, and the Brent barrel from the North Sea, for delivery in May, was up 1.73% at $113.44 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

– Iran threatens to completely close the Strait of Hormuz Iran stated that it would completely close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global oil supply, if Washington follows through on its threat to target its power plants. Earlier, Tehran had threatened to hit infrastructure in the Middle East in response to an ultimatum from Donald Trump, following particularly destructive Iranian strikes in southern Israel. If the strait is not fully and unconditionally reopened by Monday evening, the U.S. will “strike and obliterate” Iranian power plants “STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST!” warned the American president on Saturday night.

– Iran: Water and energy infrastructures heavily damaged “The vital country’s infrastructures in water and electricity have suffered heavy damages following terrorist and cyber attacks led by the United States and the Zionist regime,” stated Abbas Aliabadi, Iranian Energy Minister, as reported by the Isna news agency. “The attacks targeted dozens of water transmission and treatment facilities and destroyed parts of critical supply networks,” he added, mentioning ongoing efforts to repair the damages.

– TotalEnergies: CEO concerned for global economies If the conflict lasts “more than six months,” warned Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of French oil giant TotalEnergies, “all the world economies will suffer,” noting that currently, “10 million barrels of oil per day cannot leave the Persian Gulf.”

– North Macedonia: Reduced VAT on fuel In the Balkan country, the VAT on gasoline and diesel will decrease from 18% to 10% on Monday for two weeks, as stated by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, to curb pump price hikes. Gasoline and diesel were priced around 1.40 and 1.49 euros per liter respectively on Sunday.

– Sri Lanka: Further fuel price hike Sri Lanka saw a second increase (25%) in fuel prices due to significant hydrocarbon supply difficulties, after an 8% increase earlier in the week. The country imports all its oil and coal needs for electricity production.

– European countries urged to reduce gas stockpiling The European Commission called on EU countries to lower their gas storage targets for winter to ease pressure on prices. The usual filling level requirement is 90%, but they are encouraged to limit it to 80%, in order to “reassure market players,” according to a letter from EU Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen, seen by AFP on Saturday.

– Bangladesh seeks emergency financial aid Bangladesh has requested over $2 billion in emergency loans from international institutions to tackle the surge in oil prices. Rashed Al Titumir, economic advisor to Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, stated to AFP that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had committed to lend $1.3 billion and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide $500 million in budgetary support.