CASPER, Wyo. – Casper and Natrona County residents should be prepared for significant changes in weather patterns this weekend. The National Weather Service in Riverton has warned of potential severe thunderstorms, followed by a quick transition to summer-like heat and increased fire risks.
A shortwave moving southeast from Montana is expected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region on Saturday. Forecasters have issued a marginal risk for severe weather in Natrona County, with the main window for activity between noon and 7 p.m. While the coverage of the storms will be scattered, there is a 50% chance of precipitation in any given location in the county.
The atmosphere in southern Natrona County is showing enough instability to support longer-lasting storms at higher altitudes. Meteorologists have warned that these storms could bring gusty winds and small hail. Despite the active weather, temperatures on Saturday are forecasted to remain about 5 degrees below normal, with Casper expecting a high of 57 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.
The unsettled weather is expected to clear by Saturday night, paving the way for a significant warming trend in the week ahead. Sunday will bring sunny skies with a high near 73 degrees before a thermal ridge builds over the state.
The conditions will intensify on Monday as a dry weather system moves in. Temperatures are expected to rise 15-20 degrees above normal, reaching a high of 86 degrees in Casper. This combination of heat, along with southwest winds gusting up to 31 mph and humidity levels dropping below 15%, is raising concerns about elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions.
The peak of the heat is anticipated between Monday and Wednesday. While Tuesday will provide slight relief with a high of 78 degrees, Wednesday could see temperatures in Casper nearing 90 degrees for the first time this season. Lower elevations in the Big Horn Basin have a 30%-50% chance of hitting 90 degrees midweek, while Casper and surrounding areas are likely to remain in the upper 80s.
Fire weather concerns will remain a priority for local officials through Thursday. Another weather system is projected to arrive by the end of the week, but there is currently little consensus among long-range models on the timing or location of any potential rainfall. Residents are advised to stay updated on local weather updates and use caution with any outdoor activities that could pose a risk of starting wildfires during these dry and windy periods.
Detailed Forecast
- Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, followed by showers likely and a possible thunderstorm until 5 p.m., then another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with a steady temperature around 57. North wind at 7–13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. 70% chance of precipitation. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
- Tonight: A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8 and 9 p.m. Mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear, with a low around 35. Northeast wind around 6 mph, calming in the evening.
- Sunday: Sunny with a high of 73. West-southwest wind at 5–9 mph.
- Sunday Night: Mostly clear with a low around 46. Light and variable wind shifting to the south-southwest at 5–9 mph after midnight.
- Monday: Mostly sunny with a high near 86. Breezy with a southwest wind at 11–21 mph, gusting as high as 31 mph.
- Monday Night: Mostly clear with a low around 48. West wind at 8–13 mph becoming light and variable after midnight, with gusts up to 22 mph.
- Tuesday: Sunny with a high near 78. Calm wind shifting to the east-northeast at 5–7 mph in the morning.
- Tuesday Night: Mostly clear with a low around 48.
- Wednesday: Sunny with a high near 89.
- Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a low around 57.
- Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high near 83. Breezy.
- Thursday Night: Mostly clear with a low around 51.
- Friday: Sunny with a high near 81.
For further information on the weather, refer to the National Weather Service in Riverton.
