Predicting the political downfall of Donald Trump has always been futile. Some of my brightest friends have predicted, time and time again, his imminent collapse – and have been wrong every time.
If you watch MSNBC or listen to NPR, you might have believed, over the past decade, that his presidential campaign was just a desperate publicity stunt; that the Republican Party would abandon him after the release of the Access Hollywood recording; that he had no chance of beating Hillary Clinton; that his presidency would be so chaotic that he would be forced to resign before the end of his first year; that Robert Mueller’s investigation into his ties with the Kremlin would lead to his impeachment; that his disastrous handling of the Covid pandemic would make him unelectable; that his defeat against Joe Biden had ended his career for good; that he would be impeached after the January 6th Capitol riot; that he would inevitably lose the Republican primary against Ron DeSantis; that he would be beaten by Joe Biden, and then by Kamala Harris; and so on.
Ten years after entering politics, the most avoidable mistake for any commentator is to underestimate Donald Trump’s ability to survive – and come back from the dead.
The hardcore base is no longer enough
A minority of Americans have always been drawn to Trump precisely for his most outrageous traits. They loved his vulgarity, savored his sarcasm, and unquestionably embraced his radicalism. This hardcore base was significant in his most loyal followers, but it was never enough to explain his two presidential victories.
Many decisive voters, from the start, maintained a more ambivalent relationship with Trump. He promised to make them significantly richer. He would lower taxes, control inflation. Healthcare costs would drop. Peace would return to the Middle East. The country would reclaim its lost greatness. It is easy to understand why those willing to believe that he could, at least in part, keep his promises found them irresistible.
Promises on credit
During his first term, Trump did achieve some real successes, from Operation Warp Speed to the Abraham Accords. But when he inevitably failed to deliver on most of his grand promises, he struggled to find explanations. He had just taken office. The deep state was obstructing him. The “RUSSIAN HOAX” prevented him from governing. The pandemic disrupted everything. The share of Americans truly excited about him quickly dwindled towards the end of his first term; yet, the idea that he might be worth giving a second chance in 2024 – even after a meager harvest of promises – continued to linger in the minds of a surprising number of voters.
However, one cannot indefinitely postpone promises without seeing voters grow impatient. As Viktor Orbán learned in Hungary, there always comes a moment when leaders are judged by their results rather than their words. For Donald Trump, that moment seems to have arrived.
Iran, or the war one too many
The repercussions have been severe in areas where Trump thought he was most solid. Americans blamed Democrats for Joe Biden largely due to persistent inflation after the pandemic, fueled by his administration’s generous stimulus plans. Yet Trump failed to anticipate Iran’s decision to block oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The result: a new surge in prices, and a steep decline in his ratings on inflation and the cost of living – nearly 40 points.
Trump is faltering on other fronts that were once his strong suits, even if they are less directly related to the war in the Middle East. Many Americans were critical of Biden for not regaining control of the southern border. But since the beginning of his second term, Trump has pursued a deportation policy so brutal that in many polls, a clear majority of Americans now approve of his immigration management.
The numbers paint a trend that is increasingly hard to ignore: overall support for Trump is at or near its historic low.
