In her analysis, Thuy Van Pham, economist at Groupama AM, deciphers the major directions of the 15th Chinese five-year plan for the period 2026-2030. Presented at the National People’s Congress, this new strategic framework builds on the previous one, while marking a clear shift: innovation now becomes the core of the Chinese development model.
The annual session of the National People’s Congress opened on March 5, 2026. The meeting presented the major directions of economic policy for 2026 and also assessed the 14th five-year plan 2021-2025. Overall, most objectives of the 14th plan have been achieved or are close to being met. Despite challenges like the Covid crisis, China maintained an average growth rate close to the target of around 5% per year during the period.
The new strategic framework for the period 2026-2030 continues the previous plan. Considered a crucial phase in the development roadmap, it aims to modernize China and lay the foundation to reach a level of development comparable to advanced economies by 2035. The growth target is set between 4.5% to 5%, slightly lower than the previous plan.
The top priorities remain similar to the previous plans, with a restructuring of priorities now highlighting technological innovation as the top priority for the next five years. The strategy emphasizes the need to strengthen technological autonomy in a context of geopolitical tensions, focusing on advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum technologies, and semiconductors.
The plan also focuses on strengthening the domestic market and transforming the growth model with seven quantitative targets. Improving the population’s standard of living and welfare is a central goal, along with enhancing employment, access to public services, and healthcare and education systems. The plan aims to reduce social and regional inequalities to foster inclusive growth.
The ecological transition is another key pillar of the plan, aiming to accelerate the transformation of the energy model and reduce the environmental footprint of growth. The plan sets six goals to reduce carbon emissions, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption, and improve air and water quality.
In a more uncertain international context, the plan emphasizes economic security and national resilience, especially focusing on food and energy security. It aims to ensure high agricultural production levels and enhance national energy capacity to reduce the country’s dependence on strategic imports.
From a practical perspective, the plan includes 109 major projects to implement its strategic directions, focusing on technological innovation, industrial modernization, and energy transition. It reflects China’s aim to enhance technological autonomy and competitiveness in strategic sectors and improve social infrastructure while supporting the country’s economic transformation.
The new development plan notably lacks a focus on monetary aspects and the internationalization of the yuan, highlighting other priorities like financial market opening and the role of Shanghai as an international financial center. Overall, the 15th plan serves as a key instrument to assert China’s economic and strategic power in the next decade. In a geopolitically tense context, China’s progress towards a modern and technologically sovereign society, combined with its aim to strengthen industrial leadership, hints at a lasting rivalry with the United States.
[Context: The article discusses China’s 15th five-year plan for 2026-2030, focusing on key strategic directions and priorities outlined in the plan.] [Fact Check: The content mentioned in the article follows a detailed analysis of the key objectives and strategies of the 15th Chinese five-year plan, highlighting the country’s focus on innovation, economic growth, ecological transition, and international competitiveness.]
