Thomas Gomart is a respected voice on international issues. Since 2019, the director of Ifri (French Institute of International Relations) has published no less than four books detailing the reshaping of the world. However, in recent months, when he meets with executives, the leader of the think tank has made a habit of reading them another work: the National Strategic Review (RNS), unveiled last July by the government, which lays out the threats facing France.
Thomas Gomart then points to article 7 of the introduction. This poses the “particularly high risk of a major high-intensity war outside the national territory in Europe, involving France and its European allies in particular by 2030, and would see our territory targeted at the same time by massive hybrid actions”.
In clear terms, the central scenario is one of a war with Russia within the next 4 years on European soil in which the French army would be involved, with severe consequences (sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation actions, etc.) on national soil.
“When I read that, it is not uncommon for people to make me repeat it,” smiles Thomas Gomart. A recurring situation from which he has drawn a lesson: “Today, I see a strong gap between what the strategic and military community thinks and what the business world says about the evolution of the world.”
Indeed, there is a dissonance. Everywhere in the world, the sound of boots is resonating. The latest report from the IMF (International Monetary Fund), released in mid-April, expresses concerns about the increase in wars. But have French business leaders fully grasped this?
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This contrasts with a part of the Old Continent. In the Netherlands or the Baltic States, telecommunications operators are working together on the protection of data centers in case of missile attacks.
“The Globalization of an Airport”
If geopolitics is back, the scenario of a major conflict remains in the shadows. How to understand this in-between state? The reason is mainly psychological—it is never simple to acknowledge the end of a world.
This is also the conclusion drawn by Thomas Gomart: “Many have experienced what I call a ‘globalization of an airport.’ In a secure Europe, it was tempting to believe the doctrine spread in the corridors of Davos.
“A whole prospective literature contented itself with extending the major global trends, in a disembodied, partial, and biased manner, by putting aside religious or ideological questions,” summarizes the director of Ifri. In this collective imagination, Russia was not supposed to invade Ukraine because it was not in its “interest.”
“Businesses Tempted to Remain Neutral”
The temptation of “business as usual” is even greater because multinational corporations have demonstrated, in recent years, a great capacity for resilience in the face of multiple crises by diversifying their supply chains and operations on all continents.
Cybersecurity – which is at the top of the risk map made every year by major companies – also receives substantial investments.
In a country that has seen its long tradition of hybridization between high-ranking civil servants and industry captains erode, the cultural shock with the Army is inevitable. The presence of military personnel in the headquarters of companies remains limited.
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