The weakening of strategic weapons control systems, particularly international agreements, and the rivalry between the great powers with nuclear weapons are causing concern.
States with nuclear weapons are increasingly removing these weapons from stockpiles to install them on launch supports, posing an increased risk to global stability, researchers from the reference institute Sipri warned on Monday.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the world’s nuclear powers have an estimated total of 12,187 warheads, of which around 9,745 are in stockpiles for potential use. This is a slight decrease from the previous year, because since the end of the Cold War, old warheads have generally been dismantled faster than new ones have been deployed, resulting in led to a reduction in the total number of warheads.
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«The most worrying news is that although the number of nuclear weapons has decreased, the level of nuclear dangers and risks is increasing“, Karim Haggag, director of Sipri, told AFP. The downward trend in nuclear weapons stocks should be reversed in the years to come.as the pace of dismantling slows, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates“The institute said in a statement.
The weakening of strategic arms control systems, particularly international agreements, and the rivalry between the great powers with nuclear weapons are all additional signs of concern, according to Mr. Haggag.
Out of stock
Another worrying trend, “States with nuclear weapons take them out of their stockpiles and deploy them on nuclear vectors. We are therefore witnessing an increase in the number of nuclear weapons deployed“said Mr. Haggag. The United States and Russia together hold approximately 83% of the world’s nuclear weapons stockpiles, with more than 5,000 warheads each. Both countries have programs to modernize their arsenals, each however encountering difficulties.
The United States’ nuclear modernization program is progressing, but faces “planning and financing difficulties likely to delay it further and considerably increase the cost“, writes Sipri. The Russian program has also been challenged by failed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, while economic sanctions and constraints linked to the war in Ukraine also appear to be affecting it.
Compétition géopolitique
At the same time, China is developing its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. HAS”The intensification of geopolitical competition strongly encourages China to rely more on nuclear weaponsÂ,” M. Haggag said.
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According to Sipri, China now has 620 warheads and, depending on how it decides to structure its forces, it could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the United States by 2030. Even if the country reached 1,000 warheads nuclear stocks by then, this would still only correspond to a quarter of American and Russian stocks, notes the institute.
In Europe, France and the United Kingdom have maintained their nuclear arsenals at a stable level, at 290 and 225 respectively, but Sipri notes that the British stock should increase following a review of the program in 2021. Emmanuel Macron also ordered an increase in the French stock in March. India would have slightly increased its nuclear arsenal to bring it to 190 warheads.
Pakistan’s nuclear warhead count, India’s rival, remained stable at 170, but the country continued to accumulate fissile material.which suggests that its nuclear arsenal could expand over the next decadeHAS”. North Korea also continues to “pursue its stated objective of expanding ‘exponentially’ its nuclear arsenal,” according to Sipri, which estimates that North Korea has around 60 nuclear warheads. Israel – which does not admit to possessing nuclear weapons – is also said to be in the process of modernizing its arsenal, estimated at around 90 warheads.
