I have the impression of it. We have very little perspective to make a decision, no one really knows. However, we have in the rearview mirror a month of March of open and very intense hostilities, with the Israeli-American campaign on Iran, as well as all the retaliatory strikes. Then two months devoted to “negotiations”. These two months did not produce anything productive because the demands remained irreconcilable, the ego of each actor having to be taken into account.
This ceasefire was above all a logistical break, to allow the Israeli-American side to replenish the arsenals, stock up on ammunition and interceptors and breathe new life into human resources. On the Iranian side, each day that passed was worth taking, we played for time.
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What is Iran’s interest in relaunching this war with Israel?
Hezbollah is cornered like never before in its history, and there is, in my opinion, no chance that it will disarm. So I don’t really see how we could see the State of Israel stop the pressure it is exerting on Beirut. Since this pressure is destined to continue, I find it difficult to see the Revolutionary Guards letting go of Hezbollah. Symbolically they cannot. This is why they fired again at Israel, to try to save what remains to be saved.
Let’s not forget that Tehran has been banking on this proxy war for decades. It has only been two years, almost half a century, that the Iranians themselves have been “into the fray” against Israel. Before that, they always sent Lebanese or Palestinians in their place. Here, they are trying to show that they are not afraid, that they are in solidarity “from life to death” with the Shiites of South Lebanon. They cannot afford to function otherwise, given their unbreakable bond.
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Do you believe this could be the start of a new escalation in the region?
There is clearly a headlong rush on all sides. I fail to see how we could avoid a new escalation on the part of the three protagonists: the Israelis, the Americans and the Iranians. I think the Americans will go back, because there is really no other choice. The Trump administration will continue, because it is a constant, to maintain this intentionally erratic communication, blowing hot and cold, announcing three times a week that a deal is imminent. But above all its aim is to calm the markets, to try to contain the surge in oil prices, to reassure the stock market. It is often said that Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent. In reality, he is very consistent in his foreign policy in the Middle East, vis-à-vis Iran. He’s not going to give a gift. He will continue to intensify the pressure.
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So the negotiations have no chance of succeeding?
In reality, I have difficulty seeing how Tehran or Washington could bend the positions of the other camp, whether on the billions of frozen assets, on the control of the Strait of Hormuz, or on the future of the 450 kilos of enriched uranium. I find it difficult to see what can emerge in the medium term, other than the result of a balance of power like the one we saw in March. Everyone is flexing their muscles again, the Iranians are firing missiles, the Houthis are at it again too. Washington will not suddenly say: “We’re changing our mind, we’re going to start releasing half of the frozen assets to you.” That would be completely inconsistent.
