With less than ten days to go before kick-off, the 2026 World Cup is already shaping up to be an extraordinary event. Organized jointly by the United States, Canada and Mexico, it will bring together for the first time 48 teams in 16 cities.
Behind this expanded format, FIFA displays spectacular economic ambitions, evoking tens of billions of dollars injected into the host economies. However, as the deadline approaches, economists and analysts are qualifying this discourse. Between optimistic projections and structural realities, the World Cup could well generate a more modest impact than expected.
Read also: 2026 World Cup: Morocco’s matches broadcast by SNRT
Ambitious economic projections
The figures put forward by the organizers are dizzying. According to estimates, the competition could generate more than 30 billion dollars in direct benefits for the three host countries, with an overall effect on global GDP exceeding 40 billion. To this would be added the creation of more than 800,000 jobs, direct and indirect.
These projections are based in particular on the massive influx of tourists, spending on accommodation, catering and transport, as well as increased activity in the entertainment and service sectors. From this perspective, the World Cup is presented as a major economic lever, capable of stimulating growth in the short term.
But these figures must be put into perspective. Several independent analyzes emphasize that these estimates are based on optimistic hypotheses, sometimes far removed from the economic realities observed in previous editions.
An unequal impact depending on the host country
The effect of the 2026 World Cup will not be uniform. In the United States, the main economy involved, the expected benefits, estimated at around $17 billion, remain marginal on a national scale. They represent less than 0.1% of GDP, an insufficient level to produce a significant macroeconomic effect.
Mexico, on the other hand, appears to be the main relative beneficiary. With benefits estimated at around $3 billion, the impact could represent up to 0.5% of GDP. In an economy more dependent on tourism and services, the arrival of international visitors has more weight.
Certain Mexican cities such as Guadalajara, Monterrey or Mexico City should therefore record more sustained economic activity. Canada, for its part, could benefit from spin-offs of several billion Canadian dollars, but these remain to be weighed against the public expenditure incurred.
World Cup 2026: what if Morocco went even further?
Temporary and localized growth
Economic studies converge on one point: the positive effects of the tournament will be concentrated in time and space. In the United States, for example, host cities are expected to experience a one-off increase in activity, mainly in the hotel, restaurant and leisure sectors.
Metropolises like Houston, New York and Dallas are among the main beneficiaries of this dynamic. However, the associated job creations remain largely temporary, linked to the duration of the competition.
Above all, a significant part of the activity generated corresponds to a substitution effect. In other words, the tourists attracted by the World Cup partly replace the usual visitors, without creating any real additional wealth. This phenomenon considerably limits the net impact on the economy.
The specter of costs and budgetary excesses
If the benefits are debated, the costs are very real. The overall budget for the 2026 World Cup is estimated at around $14 billion, including more than $11 billion for the United States alone.
The history of mega sporting events also shows that these estimates are often exceeded. Academic research indicates that initial budgets are regularly exceeded, sometimes dramatically. This drift is partly explained by the impossibility of postponing the event: faced with delays, the organizers must speed up the work, whatever the cost.
In most cases, it is public finances which absorb these overruns, which raises questions about the allocation of resources.
Morocco-Brazil World Cup 2026: what will be the ticket prices?
“ éléphants blancs » less likely, but a persistent risk
Previous World Cups have left behind little-used infrastructure, which has become symbols of waste. Stadiums built at great expense have transformed into “white elephants”, expensive to maintain and unprofitable.
The examples of Brazil in 2014 and Qatar in 2022 illustrate this phenomenon. In some cases, the infrastructure did not find a lasting use after the competition.
The 2026 edition, however, is distinguished by a different context. The three host countries already have the majority of the necessary infrastructure, including stadiums operated by sports franchises. This factor reduces the risk of unnecessary investments.
However, this does not guarantee a sustainable economic return. The absence of new structuring projects also limits the long-term transformation effect.
Uncertain tourism demand
Beyond infrastructure, another concern is emerging: that of demand. Several signals indicate that the influx of visitors could be lower than expected.
Surveys of hotels in US host cities reveal booking levels below forecasts. Among the factors cited are difficulties in obtaining visas, geopolitical tensions, as well as the high cost of tickets and travel.
In this context, some players in the sector do not hesitate to describe the tournament as a “non-event” in terms of tourism. Although the situation could change as kick-off approaches, these indicators fuel skepticism.
2026 World Cup: what are the most impressive stadiums of the competition?
A limited macroeconomic effect
In the end, most analyzes converge towards a cautious conclusion. The 2026 World Cup will indeed generate additional economic activity, but this will remain limited in time, geographically concentrated and partially offset by crowding out effects.
The latter designate the phenomenon by which public spending or the influx of visitors linked to the event replace other forms of investment or consumption. The net gain for the economy is reduced.
In a large economy like that of the United States, this impact becomes almost imperceptible on a global scale.
A global spectacle, a measured impact
The 2026 World Cup promises to be a major sporting and media success. But on an economic level, it should be more a temporary redistribution of activity than a real engine of growth.
Ambitious promises and economic realities, the World Cup confirms a trend observed for several years: the fallout from mega-events is often overestimated. Behind the planetary spectacle, the real impact remains much more discreet.
