A political, economic, financial and social crisis has shaken Lebanon since the revolt of October 17, 2019. The ongoing shipwreck could herald a humanitarian crisis and a collapse of the state. Without structural reforms and anti-corruption measures, the international community refuses to come to the aid of this country on the verge of collapse. Already untenable, this situation was worsened by the COVID-19 epidemic and the explosion that occurred in the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020.
Overindebted, the Lebanese state is today unable to repay its debts to local banks and foreign lenders. The country suffers from “deliberate depression” and hyperinflation. In addition to an unprecedented banking crisis which affects the savings of individuals, subject to illegal restrictions on their accounts, there is the depletion of the foreign currency reserves of the Bank of Lebanon (BDL). Basic products like gasoline, wheat and some medicines are imported in dollars. To access international markets while selling these products at low prices, local importers buy dollars from the BDL at the official exchange rate of 1,507 Lebanese pounds (LL) to the dollar, while on the market a dollar is worth more than 8,000 LL. If the BDL were no longer able to subsidize imports in this way, the result would be a drastic fall in purchasing power and a worsening of poverty.
The 2019 revolt called into question the legitimacy of the ruling class, while giving rise to hope for change. However, this protest movement of unprecedented scale fizzled out, in a context of renewed sectarian sensitivities and external interference. Political change, necessary to begin a real reform project, therefore seems to be postponed indefinitely.
Traditional forces manage to maintain the the state in whichby considering reproducing the same version of a dysfunctional government reflecting the balances of a Parliament elected in May 2018, favorable to Hezbollah and its allies. Power games make both the execution of reforms and the exclusion of this pro-Iranian party from the government illusory. However, the first is a prerequisite for the entire international community; the second a prerequisite for certain powerful actors, in particular the United States. How can we save the country of Cédre from the predicted collapse if this double conditionality of international aid is not respected? This is the impossible Lebanese equation today. […]
PLAN
- The limits of the new protest actors
- Maintaining the political status quo
- The dilemma of bailout conditionality
Nabil El Khoury is a doctor in political science from the University of Paris Descartes, assistant professor at the Lebanese University and the Antonine University, columnist for the Arabic-speaking electronic newspaper Al-Modon.
