The current state of financial markets is best described as a question of macro-geopolitics first, crypto second.
The evidence is clear. Despite recent favorable regulatory developments related to the Clarity Act, bitcoin showed little enthusiasm, trading around $77,200 – virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours and week.
Meanwhile, oil remains high around $100 and speculative capital is flowing into copper due to fears of a sulfur shortage. The link? Copper production relies heavily on sulfuric acid, the supply of which was disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz.
Essentially, it’s all about Hormuz, driving commodity flows and rising prices, fueling inflation fears, driving up bond yields, which supposedly weigh on the cryptocurrency. American stocks, for their part, are trading near their all-time highs, driven by optimism around AI.
Bitcoin is not at the heart of this geo-economic and AI-related revaluation.
So it’s no surprise that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue to experience outflows, seeing $1.15 billion this week after $1 billion last week, according to SoSoValue. Coinbase premium, a key indicator of US demand relative to the rest of the world, hit monthly lows.
Analysts have repeatedly stressed that these indicators require marked improvement before a sustained recovery can take hold. The question is whether this will happen while markets remain focused on geopolitics and AI.
Meanwhile, parts of the cryptocurrency market, including on-chain perpetual contracts and quantum-resistant tokens, continue to show strength, supported by specific news and narratives, as we discussed on Thursday. The Layer-1 Near Protocol blockchain token (NEAR) is the latest addition to this group, up over 25% in the last 24 hours following the announcement of a major upgrade focused on automated scaling and quantum resilience.
In traditional markets, Nasdaq futures have given up early gains and are trading largely flat. Analysts remain generally optimistic about stocks following the last earnings season. Stay vigilant.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity on altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Upcoming Crypto Week.”
What are the trends
Today’s Signal
HYPE’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above the 70 level. Although readings above 70 are commonly referred to as “overbought,” this interpretation is often misleading.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. A reading above 70 simply signals strong upside momentum and suggests that the uptrend may still have room to continue. This does not automatically mean that the asset is overvalued or that an imminent reversal is expected, contrary to what the popular narrative often implies.
In strongly trending markets, the RSI can remain high for extended periods of time without causing a significant pullback.
