Could Taiwan suffer an invasion from China? After Donald Trump’s visit to China last week, the Taipei authorities have made numerous declarations reaffirming that they are “a democratic, sovereign and independent nation, which is not subordinate to the People’s Republic of China”.
“The future of Taiwan cannot be decided by foreign forces, nor can it be held hostage by fear, division or short-term interests,” Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said this Wednesday. May 20.
These worried reactions come after the statements of American President Donald Trump. Washington is required to provide defensive weapons to the island under the Taiwan Relations Act, a law passed by the US Congress in 1979.
And “Taiwan depends very heavily on the American arms industry,” Marc Julienne, director of the Asia Center at Ifri, emphasizes to Le Parisien.
[…]
A possible recourse to arms?
The status quo between Taiwan and China seems to be preserved for the moment. “It is the status quo that we seek to defend, there is no so-called Taiwan independence problem,” Lai Ching-te recalled in recent days.
“If there was an official declaration of independence from Taiwan, China would probably have already attacked,” explains Marc Julienne. The ruling party – Democratic Progressive Party – is considered independent by China, but it is in reality “very favorable to the status quo, like the vast majority of Taiwanese. That is to say, no unification, no independence. We stay as we are. HAS”
An armed invasion is, however, not completely ruled out.
Marc Julienne recalls that, for the Chinese government, “Taiwan remains a high-priority objective in its ambition to finish the work of unifying China.” On the other hand, “the Chinese army has been training for years to maneuver in the strait and around Taiwan, with large-scale military exercises, this should not be taken lightly.”
[…]
A “slow asphyxia of Taiwan”
[…]
A peaceful unification could go through “the development of commercial relations, customs measures, investments… A progressive way to entangle the two territories “, projects Marc Julienne. A method which, however, clashes with the will of the Taiwanese. The specialist recalls that from 2008 to 2016, the Kuomintang, a Taiwanese party favorable to China, forged links with Beijing. “There was the beginning of economic integration but the population ended up taking to the streets because they did not want to be unified with China. HAS”
In the meantime, Beijing is trying to weaken the island. During Donald Trump’s visit, Xi Jinping tried to weaken ties between Washington and Taipei, presenting the Taiwanese government in power as independentists creating instability. China seeks to “unravel the diplomatic network” already weak Taiwan, explains Marc Julienne: currently, only twelve countries recognize it as a state. And despite their financial support, the United States is not part of it.
However, it seems unlikely that Donald Trump would stop arms deliveries to Taiwan, “it would be an extremely negative signal also sent to American allies in the region, Japan, Korea, the Philippines”, notes Marc Julienne.
[…]
>> An article to be found in full on the Le Parisien website.
