War, inflation, bad weather, television news in permanent crisis – Fondation Jean-Jaurès

It is one of the last mass events in the audiovisual landscape: ten million people watch the television news (JT) of TF1, France 2 and M6 every evening. Resistant to the multitude of servicesstreaming and the fragmentation of the offer, they remain an issue that Matthieu Deprieck deciphers each month.  For this ninth note, he shows how the multiplication of special editions and the focus on a few major crises contribute to establishing a feeling of “permacrise” in public opinion. This concentration of media attention tends to reduce the diversity of subjects covered and questions the role of news broadcasts, traditionally responsible for prioritizing and putting current events into perspective.

Introduction

It took the crisis linked to the Covid-19 epidemic to be followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the explosion in energy prices, food inflation, government instability, the war in Iran and the increase in fuel prices for the impression to take hold that the current world would be more brutal than ever. We would be prisoners of a permanent crisis, of a “permacrisis”. Thus, all moments of tension would be valid, regardless of their nature and intensity.

The news at the start of June 2026 confirms this impression of a succession of crises. The death of Lyhanna, an 11-year-old schoolgirl, provoked strong protests from the judicial institution, transforming a news item into a political fact. This fueled a media sequence remarkable for its duration.

How do the news media, whose function is to report on the state of the world, deal with this high frequency of crises? We focused our attention on the most “mainstream” media there is, the evening television news, observing them since 1^is January 2026 with the intention of isolating the most monothematic editions, from “special editions” which do not always say their name.

This is our definition of a “crisis” in the media sense of the term: a news report which dwells in an extraordinary manner on a single current event for several days. The method presented in this note makes it possible to reveal a precise photo of the “permacrise” in which more than ten million viewers are immersed every evening.

The picture we unveil is so spectacular that it raises a question: will the French people exposed to this multiplex of anxieties emerge unscathed?

From the first days of the year, crises follow one another

The first days of 2026 set the tone: the terrible fire at the Le Constellation bar in Crans-Montana (Switzerland) monopolized significant airtime on 1^is and January 2 before being overtaken on January 3 by the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Same stacking phenomenon on the 5th: an episode of snow adds to the change of regime in Venezuela. On the 8th, storm Goretti swept away the previous crises. On the 11th, viewers have already absorbed five crises placed one on top of the other.

On this period from 1^is on January 11, the news is built in successive layers. Just because a storm passes through the country doesn’t mean Venezuela and the Constellation fire disappear. During the first ten days of the year, all the news continue to follow developments in the Crans-Montana drama. TF1 viewers still hear about Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 4, 5 and 10.

National politics weighs little in the chaos of the world

This mosaic is the reflection of an unstable world. In the twelve crises identified in five months, two are geopolitical in nature: the change of regime in Venezuela and the war in Iran.

Launched by Donald Trump on February 28, 2026, the attack against the mullahs’ regime exceeded all standards of television news. On France 2, it was the only subject covered the same day and the two following ones. In other words, she benefited from one hour and forty-nine minutes of airtime in three 20-hour days. Until March 14, that is to say for two full weeks, not a news story on the three channels downgraded the war in Iran in its conductor. We had to wait until the first round of municipal elections, on March 15, to attenuate the trend.

In this respect, let us emphasize that political news counts very little in this panorama of crises. On March 16 and 17, TF1, France 2 and M6 carried high in their conductor the lessons of the first round of the municipal elections (thirty minutes for TF1, eighteen for M6, sixty for France 2) before the war in Iran took over again on March 18, TF1 devoting only two minutes to the municipal elections that evening; M6, three minutes.

The comparative study of the treatments reserved for the death of Quentin Deranque and the floods in the west of France is a striking illustration of this weak place occupied by politics in the special pages of the news. The identity activist died on February 14 during a brawl with far-left activists. The next day, the three newscasts cover the news, France 2 is the only one to reserve so much air time for it (fifteen minutes and four “modules”). Then, for four consecutive evenings, the attention of the editorial staff will oscillate between the floods and the death of Quentin Deranque with a clear advantage to the first subject.

A major national event has monopolized the attention of the news but it is difficult to strictly speaking make it a political event. The disappearance of Lyhanna on May 29, then her death declared on June 5, opened a crisis in the sense we understand it in this note. This occupied the front page of the news for a remarkably long time. For nine days in a row, the 8 p.m. channel on France 2 devoted at least three subjects to this drama for an average daily duration of nearly nine minutes. It’s a little more than on TF1 and M6 (eight minutes).

Let’s return to international topics. We were at the moment when the municipal elections briefly interrupted a sequence devoted to Iran, extraordinary in its length and intensity. In the last days of March, the war unleashed by Donald Trump is so present that it will give rise to another crisis: the price of fuel.

In a previous note, we analyzed the attention paid by the news to pump prices to note that at the end of a month of war, the conflict and inflation had been decorrelated. On March 30, TF1 reserves the first eight minutes of its 8 p.m. show for the price of fuel – the war is postponed to the 18^e minute. The subject of fuel is becoming more autonomous and occupies so much space in the April news that it will itself end up generating another crisis, around inflation.

Crans-Montana, Venezuela, bad weather. In January, crises accumulate like sediment at the bottom of a river. Iran, fuel, inflation. In April, they fit together like Russian dolls.

How are the French experiencing this succession of crises?

Rivers or Russian dolls, whatever the metaphor. In both cases, the accumulation of such monothematic news slots necessarily produces effects on viewers.

The first consequence appears in opinion surveys. The level of anxiety among the French has remained at a high level since the Covid-19 epidemic in 2020. This is embodied in a protean fear fueled by different crises. In fall 2022, L’Opinion had compiled a series of polls presented as follows: 78% of French people expect a social explosion in the coming months (Ifop for Sud Radio), 71% fear being personally affected by climate disasters (Odoxa for France Bleu), 71% anticipate a third world war (Ifop for Sud Radio), 63% think Vladimir Putin ready to use nuclear weapons (CSA for CNews), 76% imagine imminent terrorist attacks.

This multiplex of tensions has led the French to distrust everything, from health, to the economy, to geopolitics, to security. In December 2025, the Verian Institute documented this range of concerns: a majority of people surveyed considered a future economic crisis, a large-scale natural disaster, a war and, to a lesser extent, a pandemic likely. The study added that we French were more pessimistic than the Germans and the British in our ability to face these risks.

This element is important: not content with accumulating, anxieties arise on a ground marked by distrust towards the elites. No one is considered up to the task of responding to crises that we have the feeling are increasing. Thus, the news plunges the French into a whirlwind of tensions without the latter seeing the outcome. Worse, while they have not emerged from the previous crisis, they are plunging into the next one. Emmanuel Macron’s special advisor, Jonathan Guémas, speaks of the strobe effect and applies it to Donald Trump. The multitude of announcements and decisions taken by the American president blinds people, dazes them and lets them see only flashes which make up a distorted vision of reality.

Donald Trump is obviously a source of the problem. Among the twelve crises that we have identified since the start of 2026, four are consequences of his decisions: the kidnapping of Maduro, the war in Iran, the rise in fuel prices, inflation. Let’s add all his words which do not trigger a special edition in our news but which provide a backdrop against which the other crises are pinned. There is then a feeling that the news moves very quickly, that even a major news event, or treated as such, can be swept away by an even more extraordinary event and that it is impossible to follow the course of the world.

The news no longer fulfills its function of stabilizing information

Since 2022, ObSoCo, Arte and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation have documented in annual reports what they call “information fatigue” produced by the multiplication of information channels and messages received. In 2024, Sébastien Boulonne, Guénaëlle Gault and David Medioni had applied their concept to the world of work to, based on a survey, objectify an extension of the domain of this fatigue to workers. Workers who, once returning home, drunk with words and information, come across the news and leave for a spin cycle.

Because the 8 p.m. hours stabilize the media landscape less and less. Yet this is their function, as opposed to news channels. These describe the news in real time in an uninterrupted flow of images and words, while the news is a closed space with immutable grammar. The latter are a landmark in the lives of the French. Not all news fits into the 8 p.m. slot, as not all personalities can be invited. There are those who can “do a newscast” and others.

The “8 p.m.” is statutory. Those of TF1 and France 2 have existed since 1975. When M6 wanted to give itself the trappings of a major channel, it created an information meeting at midday and in the evening. Gilles Bouleau has been in office since 2012. Léa Salamé succeeded Anne-Sophie Lapix after eight years of stability. Xavier de Moulins has been responsible for the presentation of “19-45” since 2010. This consistency must be compared to the agility of news channels capable of changing editorial line over the course of audiences. Everything is managed on a day-to-day basis. The time to start in advertising is decided with an eye on the competition.

The setting is therefore not the same between a channel watched by more than ten million French people every evening and an uninterrupted flow of information to audiences numbering in the hundreds of thousands of viewers. And yet, although much more watched than the continuous news channels, the news shows are influenced by the BFMTV and LCI models, two channels constantly “breaking news” and “special edition”.

News under the influence of continuous news channels

Let’s take the day of June 4, 2026, marked by major news: the discovery of the body of Lyhanna, an 11-year-old schoolgirl who disappeared six days earlier. Here is the programming of the two main continuous news channels in France from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. that day.

BFMTV:

• 10 a.m.-10:30 a.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 10:30 a.m.-10:45 a.m.: the war in Iran
• 10:55 a.m.-11:20 a.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 11:30-11:50 a.m.: the war in Iran
• 12 p.m.-12:12 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 12:12-12:15 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 12:15 p.m.: the price of fuel
• 12:16 p.m.-12:19 p.m.: end of income tax declaration
• 12:19-12:44 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 12:44 p.m.-12:47 p.m.: violence on the sidelines of the Champions League final
• 12:47-12:58 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 12:58-1:01 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 1:01 p.m.-1:07 p.m.: complaints against Patrick Bruel
• 1:07 p.m. – 1:37 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 2 p.m.-2:11 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 2:11 p.m.-2:17 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 2:17 p.m.-2:19 p.m.: income tax declaration
• 2:19 p.m.-2:20 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 2:20 p.m.-2:21 p.m.: presidential candidates in front of Young Farmers
• 2:21 p.m.-2:34 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 2:34 p.m.-2:37 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 2:37 p.m.-2:40 p.m.: presidential candidates in front of Young Farmers
• 2:40 p.m. – 2:52 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 2:52 p.m.-3:01 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 3:01 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 3:02 p.m.: presidential candidates in front of Young Farmers
• 3:03 p.m.-3:13 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 3:13 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 3:47 p.m.: appearance of the “special edition” banner upon the discovery of a body. The banner remains on the air until midnight.

LCI :

• 10:20-10:45 a.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 10:49 a.m.-11 a.m.: the war in Ukraine
• 11 a.m.-11:24 a.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 11:24 a.m.: news headlines: death of Marjane Satrapi, PSG-Arsenal violence, complaints against Patrick Bruel
• 11:25-11:35 a.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 11:35-11:40 a.m.: the war in Iran
• 11:47-11:56 a.m.: the war in Ukraine
• 11:58 a.m. – 12:21 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 12:21-12:42 p.m.: the flaws of the French army
• 12:42-12:54 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 12:54 p.m. – 1:09 p.m.: civil servants’ retirements
• 1:14 p.m.-1:24 p.m.: PSG-Arsenal violence and the progress of Jordan Bardella
• 1:32 p.m.-2 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 2 p.m.-2:22 p.m.: the flaws of the French army
• 2:30 p.m.-2:45 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 2:50 p.m.-3 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 3 p.m.-3:10 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 3:10 p.m.-3:25 p.m.: the war in Iran
• 3:25 p.m.-3:49 p.m.: the war in Ukraine
• 3:49 p.m. – 6:17 p.m.: Lyhanna’s disappearance
• 6:17 p.m.: news headlines then the disappearance of Lyhanna

Whether on LCI or BFMTV, the number of current events covered is extremely low. The two channels alternate between Lyhanna’s disappearance and international news: Iran for BFMTV, Iran and Ukraine for LCI. Other current events can be counted on the fingers of one hand. This concentration is evident even before the discovery of the schoolgirl’s body: around 3:30 p.m., we see that Lyhanna’s disappearance already represents 51% of LCI’s airtime, excluding advertising slots. On BFMTV, the proportion rises to 64%. At 3:47 p.m., the channel will also switch to “special edition” for the following eight hours.

A drying up of the news

This extreme saturation causes the news to dry up. The effect is mechanical: if we devote more minutes to a single subject, the others disappear. This is obvious on continuous news channels as we have just demonstrated. The principle also applies to the 8 p.m. Let’s go back to our observation period and count the number of current affairs topics covered on average month by month, channel by channel.

• In January, 12 subjects are covered on average by TF1; 13.1 on M6; 11.2 on France 2.
• In February, 11.9 on TF1; 13.4 on M6; 10.6 on France 2.
• In March, 8.4 on TF1; 10.5 on M6; 6.5 on France 2.
• In April, 11.9 on TF1; 13 on M6; 11.8 on France 2.
• In May, 12.7 on TF1; 12.1 on M6; 12 on France 2.

The result is spectacular in March. The war in Iran is causing the number of topics covered on the three channels to plummet. Every evening, nearly four subjects disappear from TF1 news, three from M6 and five from France 2.

The space left for the outbreak of a conflict with global consequences is not up for debate. The news from the three channels have delivered remarkable work in the four corners of the world to decipher the geopolitical upheavals. This should not exempt us from asking one final question: did all these crises deserve so much air time?

Bad weather, stars of the news

This question is delicate. It affects the editorial freedom of each editorial team and shifts the analysis into subjectivity. Depending on the interests of each party, media coverage will always be judged insufficient or excessive. However, we must ask it to assess the share of crises exaggerated by the news.

Let’s go back to where we started. From our list of the twelve crises of 2026, we have focused on international and political events without mentioning the place taken by bad weather. It is essential. The month of January in the television news is marked by snowfall, then storm Goretti. February’s is half taken up by floods, storm Nils and avalanches. The last week of May is crushed by a historic heat wave.

Weather dismisses all topics in a news feed. On January 5, the news came out of four days dominated by the fire in Crans-Montana and the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro when the snow fell. The subject immediately rises to the front line: 12 minutes on TF1 and France 2.7 on M6. He will stay there for three days. He will be driven aside by… a storm. From January 5 to 9, violent winds and snow garnered 1h16 of air time on TF1. The first channel particularly watches the skies: the first floods of the year, at the end of January, are covered by three consecutive special pages and 29 minutes of reports. Nothing compares with the month of February when historic volumes of rain fell on the west of France. From February 11 to 24 (thirteen days!), TF1 devotes at least seven minutes per evening to these floods. Finally, from May 24 to 30 (again a whole week), the three channels saturate their airwaves with reports devoted to the historic heatwave due to its precocity.

Bad weather offers the news a working capital for special editions and the opportunity to break the traditional balance of their conductor: a succession of two-minute reports. Storms, floods, avalanches are such regular phenomena that it is appropriate to question the need to cover them so much with the risk that the occurrence of unexpected events will inflate the number of crises to which the French are exposed.

Conclusion

Since the start of the year 2026, the extraordinary is no longer extraordinary. Normally, a subject covered for more than five minutes for three days in a row is rare. In five months, we observed this scenario twelve times. The crisis has become trivialized, unless it has become permanent to the point of giving rise to a neologism: “permacrisis”.

The Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-2022, immediately followed by the aggression of Ukraine ordered by Vladimir Putin in February 2022, gave rise to the idea of ​​a president, Emmanuel Macron, prey to perpetual crises. With him, the whole country would be subject to storms without ever being able to enjoy a moment of calm. Was the story self-fulfilling? Health, climate, politics, economics, geopolitics, everything mixes as long as it creates a crisis.

The news are involved in this movement, they who are multiplying the special pages. These are no longer the result of deliberate choices. For example, when France 2 launches a twenty-minute “large format” segment in its weekly news, it is to highlight an editorial choice. When, for four days in a row, she reserves around ten minutes for a possible hantavirus epidemic, she follows the movement. And in this case, the movement fueled by the news channels launched in a hectic race for audiences. TF1 and LCI, France 2 and France Info do not have the same function. This is why the two channels have two separate channels. The news stabilizes the information system, the news channels test its limits.

After family and friends, television news form the second source of information for the French, reported 39^e barometer Verian-The Cross-La Poste in January 2026. 65% of people surveyed trusted them. News channels were four ranks lower, with a 54% trust rate. The news cannot take from BFMTV and others only what interests them. They cannot hope to boost their audiences while maintaining their image as a trusted media. They cannot be wise old people and turbulent young people. They will have to choose.