Trump – Xi: a summit despite everything

Invited readers:

• Marc JulienneDirector of Asia Center from Ifri, and author of a briefing entitled: “The Taiwan policy of the United States, beyond Donald Trump”, published in English in February 2026.
• Agatha Kratz regularly publishes notes on the Rhodium Group website. The latest: “Closer to Home: Testing the Western Hemisphere’s Diversification Potential†, in February 2026.
• Mathieu Duchâtel published in April 2026 the note “EU-Taiwan relations and semiconductors: building lasting trust”, available on the Institut Montaigne website.

• Robin Niblett is the author of the book China – United States: the new cold war, which was translated into French by Dunod in February 2026.

   

“Never interrupt your enemy when he makes a mistake”: this phrase attributed to Napoleon in the middle of the Battle of Austerlitz, Xi Jinping has undoubtedly been savoring it for more than two months, since Donald Trump refocused most of his military and diplomatic efforts on the Middle East. Still stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, the American president must go to Beijing next Thursday for a summit to which the two heads of state obviously attach considerable importance.

Postponed for the first time in the midst of American bombings on Iran, the meeting should decide whether or not to de-escalate on the commercial front between the world’s two leading economies, at a time when they are both experiencing structural difficulties.

After the standoff over customs duties won last year by China, thanks to embargo measures on its rare earths, essential in particular to the American arms industry, an exchange of good processes could ease Washington’s restrictions on certain micro-conductors, authorize Chinese investments in United States, draft a sort of two-headed directorate of international trade and technological acceleration favoring their respective priorities.

Strait of Hormuz, trade, Taiwan: the challenges of the meeting

Could Iran dominate the conversation, a few days after a visit to Beijing by the Iranian foreign minister? Has an announcement already been negotiated concerning the decongestion of the Strait? Affected in its gas and oil supplies, China has so far remained in reserve, focused on the extension of its zones of influence in South-East Asia, playing on its image as a stabilizing power in the face of the chaos generated by American improvisations. Fascinated by the strong men with whom he likes to compare himself and associate himself with contempt for traditional alliances, Donald Trump will undoubtedly increase the demonstrations of friendship towards his host, who knows his political weakening in the run-up to the mid-term elections and the damage inflicted on the credibility of the United States. Could he go so far as to modify Washington’s line vis-à-vis Taiwan in favor of Beijing?

We Europeans are also directly concerned by the turn this summit will take. Exposed to the tariff mood swings of the American president, flooded with Chinese exports, the European Union is seeking to toughen its trade policy. With the approach of the G7 which will take place in Évian next month, could transatlantic solidarity, already undermined in terms of security, suffer or on the contrary benefit from this Sino-American dialogue?

Over the long term, which the Chinese regime traditionally favors, it is indeed a ruthless rivalry and competition that pits it against the United States. What reading, what interpretation will the different protagonists make of this singular moment?

 

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