PARIS, May 8 (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to fall on Friday after clashes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices above the symbolic mark of 100 dollars per barrel.
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should lose 0.68% at the opening. The Dax in Frankfurt could fall by 0.86%, while the FTSE 100 in London is expected to drop 0.71%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to fall by 0.76% and the Stoxx 600 down by 0.72%.
Geopolitical risk should once again mark trade in Europe since the American army and the Iranian army accused each other of having violated the truce announced a month earlier.
The United Arab Emirates also reported an Iranian missile and drone attack overnight from Thursday to Friday, indicating that air defense systems had been activated.
However, sources reported Thursday that there was progress in discussions between Washington and Tehran with a view to reaching an agreement providing for an end to hostilities and then the negotiation of a broader agreement.
American President Donald Trump, for his part, declared that the ceasefire was still in force, maintaining the hope of a negotiated resolution of the conflict, which would help to mitigate the extent of the rise in oil prices, with a barrel of Brent currently around 101 dollars.
“Despite continuing hostilities and still high oil prices, markets anticipate a limited duration (of the conflict),” explains Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Markets.
In terms of economic indicators, the market is awaiting the official monthly report on American employment after the ADP survey which reported job creations in April at a level higher than expected and the “Jolts” report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) which showed a decline job offers in March. The Reuters consensus forecasts 62,000 non-agricultural job creations in April after 178,000 in March, a stable unemployment rate at 4.3% and an acceleration in wage growth to 3.8% over one year and 0.3% over one month.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended lower on Thursday, in the wake of Intel and other microprocessor manufacturers, while uncertainty continues to reign over a settlement of the conflict in Iran and the United States.
The Dow Jones index fell 0.63%, or 313.62 points, to 49,596.97 points. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 28.01 points, or 0.38% to 7,337.11 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 32.75 points, or 0.13% to 25,806.196 points.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell 0.40% on Friday, to 62,586 points, after having reached a record level during the previous session, the SoftBank group being in sharp decline, while the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran weighs on investor morale. The Topix, broader, lost 0.43%, to 3,823.44 points.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) lost 0.8%.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell by 0.14% and the CSI 300 fell by 0.58%, the indices being pulled down by the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. Investors are also awaiting the meeting scheduled for next week between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:
PATROL
The oil market progressed Friday after the resumption of fighting between the United States and Iran which threatens a fragile ceasefire and dampens the hope of progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an essential transit route for oil and liquefied natural gas.
Brent rose 1.05% to $101.11 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.74% to $95.51.
EXCHANGES/RATES
The dollar advances by 0.11% against a basket of reference currencies, with the resumption of American-Iranian tensions, which allowed the greenback to recover from a low of more than two months reached at the start of the week in the hope of a peace agreement.
L’euro grappille 0,09%, Ã 1,1735 dollar.
Sterling traded at $1.3572 (+0.15%), heading for its first weekly loss since March, as investors await local election results that could put further political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The yen remains generally stable at 156.855 per dollar after recent interventions and warnings from Tokyo helped to contain heavy selling.
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds was stable on Friday, at 4.38%, after a decline of 1.8 basis points on Thursday.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA OF MAY 8:
COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS
FROM 06:00 Industrial production March
– over one month 0.5% -0.3%
– over one year nd 0.0%
FROM 06:00 Foreign trade March
– exports -1.7% 3.6%
– imports 0.8% 4.7%
USA 12:30 Job creations April 62,000 178,000
– unemployment rate 4.3% 4.3%
USA 2:00 p.m. Consumer confidence May 49.5 49.8
(Michigan)
(Rédigé par Claude Chendjou, édité par Augustin Turpin)
by Claude Chendjou
