The New World Disorder

Anchored in our imagination, omnipresent in the news, international relations are a source of anxiety. As if we were facing the unknown. While the world awaits the resumption of Iranian-American negotiations, war, after the genocide in Gaza, confirms a tipping point.

A geopolitical disorder

The international order, established after World War II, is in a phase of disintegration: be it the regulation methods of the economy (free trade), the political organization methods (democracy, rule of law), or the conflict resolution methods (diplomacy, multilateralism)… The signals are multiplying and pointing in the same direction. It is indeed the end of a world order that we are witnessing. Lacking a hegemonic power capable of imposing a new order alone, we are entering a new era marked by disorder caused by the affirmation of imperialist logics, predation (of territories, resources, etc.).

Such a global environment feeds a high level of conflict, unpredictability, instability, and uncertainty. Volatility reigns in a chaotic world, where invasion (from Ukraine to Lebanon) and force seem to be normalized. Despite international law and the principle prohibition of war, it once again emerges as a natural means of conflict resolution, amidst the breakdown of UN multilateralism mechanisms.

The multiplication and intertwining of crises give the impression of structural and permanent instability. Contemporary crises are indeed both global, interdependent, and systemic. The depth of the crisis is linked to its multidimensional nature: financial, social, ecological, democratic, and geopolitical. Resolving such challenges depends on cooperation. Yet the paradox of our time lies in the trend towards unilateralism and the retreat of multilateralism in a multipolar and interdependent world. Multipolarity and the transnational nature of global issues call for a more inclusive and concerted approach, where different states and regions work together to find common solutions.

A geoeconomic disorder

Furthermore, the end of illusions of a “happy globalization”, where everyone would benefit, wreaks havoc in socio-political orders and fuels the rise of extremist political forces within Western democracies. The United States are breaking away from decades of belief in free trade and the regulation of the global market by international law. A protectionist movement with multiple causes, ranging from the 2008-2009 financial crisis to the post-COVID awareness of vulnerabilities in certain value chains in strategic sectors.

From the 2008 financial crisis to the war in Ukraine, through the “Brexit”, the election of Donald Trump, and social crises in the “Global South” (deepening inequalities between rich and poor countries), the discourse on “happy globalization” is being undermined. Globalization, once considered a force for global harmonization and pacification, is now fraught with fragmentation and conflict. Unable to support an acceleration of growth rates and productivity gains, it has led to increasing internal inequalities and identity reactions. Internal social contradictions have fueled temptations for nationalist and authoritarian escapism. Consequently, the prospect of generalized prosperity, of a globally regulated market under “fair and free competition,” is no longer on the agenda. Now, a logic of predation is emerging.