All seems to be happening as if this aggregated conflict on multiple fronts was the result of overlapping bilateral issues with diverse motivations emanating from all actors involved near and far: United States, Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Israel, China, African countries, etc.
Far from the “end of history,” we are now entering an acceleration of history. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, conflicts have been multiplying. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia since February 24, 2022, the Israel-Iran opposition since October 7, 2023, the flash wars between Azerbaijan and Armenia in autumn 2020 and September 2023, the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, not to mention the civil wars in Sudan, Libya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, tensions between India and Pakistan in April-May 2025, or those at the border between Thailand and Cambodia.
Two now enduring conflicts dominate the news: the one in Ukraine, which U.S. President Donald Trump was supposed to resolve “within twenty-four hours” in January 2025 but has since entered its fifth year; and the one in the Middle East, pitting Iran against its proxies in Israel and has been ongoing for two and a half years. These two wars are increasingly interconnected to the point where one could question their possible fusion or “globalization.” So, are we advancing towards a “Third World War” of a different type, not a brutal, nuclear, total conflict, but a multiregional, multidimensional war led through proxy actors?
The interconnection of the two conflicts is not recent
The war in Ukraine began in 2014 in the Donbass, in the east of the country, with an attack by separatist groups supported by Moscow against the regular army, followed by the annexation of Crimea. Shortly after, in 2015, Russia militarily intervened in the Syrian civil war to save its ally Bashar al-Assad. The Kremlin also supported General Khalifa Haftar in the Libyan civil war and extended its influence to sub-Saharan Africa through the Wagner Group.
The private paramilitary militia born in Donbass in 2014 and front-line in Syria, spread Russia’s influence across the African continent by exchanging protection contracts for the extraction of precious materials or bribes for contraband goods, to circumvent international sanctions.
In 2018, the Wagner Group settled in the Central African Republic, in 2019 in Mali and Mozambique, followed by Burkina Faso, the DRC, etc. It is a real system of extortion, terror that is put in place in the space of five years and leads to the eviction of France from its sphere of influence.
Meanwhile, since 2023, the Iranians have set up a drone factory in Tatarstan (Russia), with a production of 6,000 units per year. With the attack of Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023, the links between Ukraine and the Middle East take on a new dimension. The price of oil increased by 4% immediately after the attack, giving a boost to the struggling Russian economy; Western media turned away from Ukraine, providing Moscow with a propaganda respite; finally, three days after the Hamas attack, on October 10, the Russian army launched a massive assault on the city of Avdiivka (Donetsk oblast), thus triggering the “Russian counter-offensive.”
This interconnection takes on a new dimension with the “second war” against Iran
The American-Israeli-Iranian conflict, launched on February 28, 2026, and for the moment limited to an “aerial war,” quickly had regional and global consequences. The oil barrel price increased from $73 before February 28 to nearly $120 during the month of March. Iran attacks the Gulf states, blocks the Strait of Hormuz, threatens the eastern Mediterranean, and targets military bases in the Indian Ocean. Like the attacks on October 7, all of this benefits Russia.
At the beginning of 2026, all economic indicators were in the red for Vladimir Putin’s country: central bank interest rate, inflation, growth of the non-military sector. The war launched by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu immediately resulted in injecting significant liquidity into the Russian treasury. While ballistic missiles strike, it is mainly the thousands of Shahed drones that wreak havoc and sow panic in the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula, the same ones used in the Ukrainian conflict.
For Ukraine, the risk is threefold:
1. Exhaustion of needed American ammunition (Patriot missiles, anti-aircraft defenses, etc.);
2. Relaxation of the Russian oil embargo by the Trump administration to contain the increase in the barrel price;
3. Risk for European economies of sustained recession if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Since 2025, the financing of the war in Ukraine has been primarily the responsibility of Europe.
In response, between March 27 and 29, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conducted a diplomatic tour in the Gulf where he signed defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
The consequences are significant:
1. With its unique world experience in anti-drone warfare, Ukraine, from a recipient of aid, positions itself as an expert in modern warfare;
2. Volodymyr Zelensky paves the way for a new source of defense financing for his country in exchange for military technology transfers;
3. The Ukrainian president hopes to secure a new access point to Patriot-type anti-aircraft defense systems;
4. By positioning itself as a credible actor in the Middle East, Kiev aims to counter Russia’s influence (whose Geran-2 drones, an improved version of the Iranian Shahed, with their resistance to jamming or stealth, are used to destroy the economy of its so-called “partners”) and could even outmaneuver Israel on its own turf.
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict is now playing out on three continents
In addition to Ukrainian and Russian soldiers in Europe, 12,000 North Korean soldiers have come to support the Kremlin, with 11,000 stationed in the Kursk region in western Russia. Likewise, African and South Asian soldiers (from thirty-four countries) have joined the fighting. In the Middle East, Volodymyr Zelensky sent 200 Ukrainian drone operators to the region to assist the Gulf monarchies against the Iranian Shahed assault.
In Africa, Ukrainians have been in action for two years. In addition to a diplomatic offensive aimed at challenging Moscow’s leverage over many compliant regimes, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) has achieved several successes against Russia. In July 2024, they helped Tuareg rebel forces decimate Wagner mercenaries in northern Mali.
It would be “logical” for the French Directorate General of External Security (DGSE), which knows Mali well, to have acted as an intermediary between the Tuareg leaders responsible for the attack and HUR, starting from scratch in the Sahel. The DGSE is familiar with the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the Azawad People (CSP-DPA, the alliance of rebel groups) and still has backup channels. It is possible that French intelligence put the Ukrainians and Tuaregs in contact to retaliate against Wagner Group, responsible for their expulsion from Mali.
Another example: at the beginning of March 2026, a surface naval drone seriously damaged the methane carrier ship Arctic Metagas off the coast of Libya. The crewless Russian vessel drifted between Italy and Malta. The Kremlin accused Ukraine and British intelligence of being behind the operation. According to an investigation by RFI, Kiev supposedly sent 200 Ukrainian soldiers to Libya. They were deployed between the Air Force Academy in Misrata (northern Libya), an aerial and naval drone base in Zawiya (west of Tripoli), from where the attack against one of the ships of the Russian ghost fleet in the Mediterranean was launched, with a post also near the airport in the capital Tripoli.
This new multiregional war is nothing like a 20th century World War
We are not facing a proxy war between a Western bloc (United States, Europe, Israel, South Korea, Canada, Australia) and a bloc dominated by China (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea). The current U.S. administration no longer considers Europeans as reliable allies.
Furthermore, the positions of each side change according to the geography of the conflicts. The U.S. support Israel, not the Europeans who advocate de-escalation; Donald Trump, backed by many Republicans, wants to withdraw from NATO; Ukraine remains the essential issue for Europeans, whose support increased by 67% in 2025 while U.S. support plummeted by 99%; the White House seeks normalization of relations with Russia; Europeans are preparing for a possible war; the Trump administration wants regime change in Western European countries; it wants to hinder China’s march towards global dominance without engaging in warfare (rare earths, oil, artificial intelligence, etc.).
Russians and Chinese assist the Iranian regime in targeting American and Gulf assets. And Donald Trump does not protest, allowing a Russian tanker to pass through Cuba. On the other hand, he criticizes Europeans every day, blaming them for not providing military aid in a war for which they were never consulted and for which they will pay a much higher energy shock than the United States.
It seems as if this war on multiple fronts is the result of overlapping bilateral issues with diverse motivations. Europeans want to help Ukraine to contain Russia. Ukraine and Russia are now engaged in a war on three continents. Israel wants the neutralization of Iran, Iran wants the destruction of Israel. Donald Trump’s United States wants the vassalization of Europe and aims to avoid conflict with Russia, seen as a potential ally in a “Great Game” against China. They also want to acquire territories in the “Western Hemisphere,” creating a risk of collision with Europe in case of a NATO withdrawal. Indeed, freed from its obligations, Donald Trump could then consider a show of force on Greenland (unlikely, but not impossible).
We are now in a multiregional war, distinctly different from a 20th-century World War. This war is kinetic and hybrid, informational and clandestine, high and low intensity, involving multiple proxy actors and characterized by variable geometry alliances where each party focuses on its immediate and strategic interests.
All conditions are in place for conflict hotspots to multiply (China-Taiwan, Korean peninsula, etc.) and for wars to persist. Defense budgets are increasing rapidly everywhere. Armies are learning from the regional “laboratories” that are the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza Strip, Iran. We are witnessing the greatest acceleration of technological progress (AI, big data, neural networks, robotics) and one of the fastest transformations in the conduct of war in history. After forty years of a bipolar world order (the Cold War) and thirty years of American hyperpower, we are now entering a multipolar global disorder.
