Oil prices surged and Wall Street retreated on Thursday, with the Nasdaq marking its worst session in a month. Dwindling hopes of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran dampened the recent optimism surrounding the American earnings season, particularly for tech stocks.
In today’s column, I analyze the resilience of American stocks – and other global markets – and question whether the primary current investment risk is not war, inflation, or tariffs, but rather risk aversion and not being exposed to the market.
If you have more time, here are some recommended articles to decipher the market movements of the day: 1. Iran showcases control over strait after peace talks collapse 2. Impact of war with Iran increasingly affecting global economy 3. 2% inflation target under a Warsh-led Fed could be quite different: Mike Dolan 4. Investors return to US stocks, boosted by AI and profit growth amid fear of missing out (FOMO) 5. Largest wave of IPOs in history promises $3 trillion valuation – with no profit
Key market movements of the day: – STOCKS: Asia declines, notable exception being KOSPI hitting a new high. Europe closes mixed. Wall Street in the red, Nasdaq down 0.9%, its biggest monthly drop. – SECTORS/STOCKS: Six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors decline, five advance. Technology down 1.5%, utilities up 2.8%. Texas Instruments surges 19%, ServiceNow plunges 18%, IBM drops 8%, Tesla falls 3.6%. Intel rises 16% after hours. AMD also gains 5% in extended trading. – CURRENCIES: Dollar gains for the third consecutive session. Indian rupee set for worst week since 2022. Peruvian sol continues to decline. Brazilian real falls 1%, its biggest monthly drop, back below 5.00/$. – BONDS: US Treasuries decline, yields up 4 basis points on the short end, flattening the curve for the fourth day. 5-year TIPS auction goes smoothly. – COMMODITIES/RATES: Oil gains 4%, rising for the fourth straight session, while gold slips to a one-week low.
Key themes of the day: – Concerns in private markets – IPO frenzy – Search for safe havens
Factors that could influence markets tomorrow: – Developments in the Middle East – Energy market movements – Japanese earnings, including Nomura – Inflation in Japan (March) – Retail sales in the UK (March) – Ifo business climate index in Germany (April) – Retail sales in Canada (March) – University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (April, final) – US earnings, including Procter & Gamble
(The content is a professional news article discussing market movements and factors influencing stock, bond, currency, and commodities markets. The article provides a summary of key events and analyzes potential factors that could impact markets.)
