In a world where multilateralism is fading in favor of dominant blocs, Thierry de Montbrial advocates for a more united and proactive Europe, capable of guaranteeing its security and weighing against major powers, all while respecting national identities. As the 17th edition of the World Policy Conference approaches this weekend in Chantilly, which he founded, the executive president of the French Institute of International Relations sheds light on the key issues of global governance.
The way the Trump administration treats Europe, beyond security and economic aspects, adds a layer of political and moral aggression as it seeks to choose our leaders. How should we respond? There are two aspects to distinguish in Trump’s foreign policy. The fact that the Atlantic Alliance no longer carries the same weight as during the Cold War era is obvious to me. Russia is not the USSR. Trump is sharply accentuating a trend.
The second aspect is the style. Speaking without restraint is a syndrome of omnipotence, when one allows themselves to say anything, insult everyone, and interfere in the internal affairs of others. Such an attitude is contagious and therefore dangerous, and I fear that it will be difficult to completely revert.
There is more than just words since there has been a military operation in Venezuela, and a war in Iran. Does this also have consequences? By consistently behaving in this manner, Trump provides arguments to all powers in this world with imperial ambitions. Note that China, at least on the diplomatic front, is responding cautiously for now.
The behaviors described above contribute to the trend of fragmenting the world into blocs, or at least into spheres of influence, each dominated by a power with a tendency towards hegemony. This raises the question of a shift from multilateralism towards a club of dominant powers.
“The international law has never been violated in such a systematic manner and with such arrogance.” [CONTEXT: Montbrial is discussing the current state of international relations and the challenges faced by global governance.]
Regarding the future of multilateralism in this context, multilateralism is an organizational form based on international law, but international law has never been violated in such a systematic manner and with such arrogance. This leads to formidable questions. How will the UN adapt, and to what end? Can a new form of multilateralism, akin to the “concert of powers” of the past, emerge?
A new wave of the arms race is underway. Territorial challenges, not only regarding Taiwan, are becoming commonplace. Violence is intensifying in state-to-state relations. Nevertheless, the disappearance of the UN seems highly unlikely as its continuation, even in a much less ambitious form than in 1945, remains in the interest of all states. [FACT CHECK: Montbrial discusses the potential scenarios and challenges faced by the European Union and the role of NATO in today’s geopolitics.]
Trump continuously threatens to withdraw from NATO. [CONTEXT: Montbrial addresses the historical connection between NATO and the European Union and the potential implications of Trump’s stance on NATO.]
NATO has survived thus far because it is not just a military organization, but primarily a political one. Historically, the European Community, now the European Union, is indissolubly linked to it. For Americans, the Euro-Atlantic institutions form a whole of which they are the leaders. This has been the perspective since the 1950s, and it was not incorrect.
“The real question is whether the European Union, lacking sufficient unity, would splinter if NATO were to fade or disappear.” [CONTEXT: Montbrial highlights the possible consequences of the EU’s dependence on NATO and the potential challenges it might face in the absence of NATO.]
European policymakers, however, still talk about a European pillar within NATO? [FACT CHECK: Montbrial explains the historical context of the European pillar within NATO and its implications.]
There have been discussions in these terms since the time of Kennedy. But the European pillar has never gone beyond good intentions. As with the Draghi and Letta reports on the European economy from two years ago. The goal of a European defense raises fundamental problems, for example, on an industrial level. [CONTEXT: Montbrial discusses the challenges of achieving a genuine European defense system.]
The question regarding the future of European organization involves a transition from a federation towards a confederation. [FACT CHECK: Montbrial explains his vision for the future structure of the EU.]
The concept of a confederation entails a association of states with strong economic and security cooperation, without questioning national identities. This reimagined confederation implies the notion of alliance, allowing states freedom to pursue national aspirations while aiming to build a genuine alliance with partners. [CONTEXT: Montbrial proposes a different model for European integration.]
“How do you see this European organization evolving?” [FACT CHECK: Montbrial offers his perspective on the future development of the European Union.]
