The continental landlocked nature of the 5 Central Asian countries does not shield them from the world’s changes. The collapse of the USSR, China’s rise to power, and the war in Ukraine have created a strong geopolitical and economic dynamic around them. Following a peaceful 20th century, adaptation and accelerated development have become the norm for the “5 Stans” in the 21st century.
Energy, logistics, and finances are their top priorities. Small size or low population does not offer protection against the necessary evolution, as seen in the example of Kyrgyzstan.
By Gérard Vespierre (*)
Over the long term, Central Asia has experienced an evolution that few regions in the world have faced. After being conquered by the Russian Empire in the 18th and 19th centuries, then under Soviet rule, the 5 Soviet socialist republics of Central Asia chose the path to independence in the 1990s. In the 21st century, they are at the heart of a major confrontation. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have become a major strategic interest center, combining their geographic corridor location and natural resources.
The Great Game in Central Asia
Moscow’s establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015 and its decision-making body, the Eurasian Economic Supreme Council in 2019, structurizes Russia’s strategy in the region. The Kremlin aims to consolidate its pivot role in Central Asia facing China. However, the latter, with ten times the population and a GDP eight times larger, has established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001, excluding Russia, creating a strategic political-economic platform that complements the Belt and Road Initiative.
On the other hand, Washington initiated the C5+1 format from 2015, bringing together the five Central Asian states and the United States in a ministerial framework. A significant change occurred in 2025 when all six heads of state, in a symbolic move, met at the White House, indicating a shift to higher diplomatic levels, with energy resources, rare earths, and geopolitical presence at the core of the Russo-Chinese world representing powerful motivations.
Europe Cannot Remain Absent
The European Union cannot ignore the center of its continent in Asia. The EU’s strategy for Central Asia in 2007 laid the foundation, with revisions in 2015, 2019, and 2023, enhancing bilateral and multilateral cooperation and specifying priorities: political dialogue, economic ties, energy and climate, security, and human exchanges. Similarly to China and the United States, the first EU-Central Asia summit at the head of state and Commission and Council presidents took place in Samarkand in April 2025.
France has steadily accelerated its relations with Central Asia, in line with the EU’s evolution and major geopolitical events. Kyrgyzstan has been a significant partner during the decade of intervention in Afghanistan, while Kazakhstan now serves as a key partner.
Central Asia Amid Opportunities and Constraints
The strategic resource potential of the 5 Central Asian countries, hydrocarbons, uranium, rare earths, combined with the shock of the Russo-Ukrainian war and their logistical corridor position between China, Russia, and Europe, has generated an unprecedented dynamic of development opportunities. However, new constraints in financial, banking, and regulatory domains have emerged as well, especially given the economic and financial sanctions against Russia in the Ukraine conflict, hindering the establishment of new distribution channels and financial routes on a large scale.
Kyrgyzstan, an Example of Transformation
Kyrgyzstan is subject to commercial network disruptions and pressures related to circumventing the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the European Union. The country is also adopting international compliance standards, exemplified by the creation of the Tamchy Investment Zone. This decision aligns with the increasing EU commercial trade and investments in Central Asia, providing stability and long-term growth opportunities. Kyrgyzstan seeks to sustain its 11% growth rate in 2025, offering a tangible growth platform regionally and ensuring compliance.
Bilateral Opportunities
In November 2023, a meeting between Emmanuel Macron and his counterpart Sadyr Japarov marked a significant step in economic development projects, including a French-Kyrgyz business forum. The country is undergoing massive acceleration in energy projects, particularly in hydropower, where France’s considerable experience could contribute significantly. Kyrgyzstan plans to execute 2 to 3 new hydropower projects annually by 2029, including a major tripartite project involving Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, representing a multi-billion Euro investment supported by the World Bank and the EBRD.
French involvement in such a project would align with the enhanced partnership and cooperation agreement signed between the EU and Kyrgyzstan in 2024.
Geographically located as a crossroads between China, Russia, and a pathway to Europe from Beijing, the 5 Central Asian countries have seen rapid development in recent years amid a disruptive geopolitical framework. They must navigate the constraints imposed on them while seizing domestic and international opportunities.
(*) Geopolitical analyst, graduate of ISC Paris, DEA finance Dauphine PSL, founder of the web media www.le-monde-decrypte.com, regular IDFM 98.0 columnist, and frequent TV and radio commentator.
